As markets observe the Christmas holiday in 2025, Bitcoin’s price action tells a familiar story, hovering just above the $87,000 level. This consolidation occurs against a backdrop of sustained capital withdrawal by institutional funds, now entering its fifth consecutive day. However, a deeper examination of on-chain metrics reveals a surprisingly positive underlying structure, suggesting a potential shift in momentum may be brewing.
Institutional Outflows Persist Amid Year-End Strategies
The pressure from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains clear. Data for December 24 shows a single-day outflow of $175.3 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This brings the total capital withdrawn over the last five trading sessions to $825.7 million. Significant redemptions were recorded by two major funds: BlackRock’s IBIT saw $91.4 million leave, while Grayscale’s GBTC experienced outflows of $24.6 million.
Market analysts attribute this selling pressure to a confluence of factors. Firstly, U.S. investors are engaging in year-end tax-loss harvesting, deliberately realizing losses for tax purposes. Secondly, the market is still absorbing the impact of a record volume of options that expired on December 20. The current negative Coinbase Premium Index confirms that the U.S. is a net seller, with Asian markets stepping in as the primary buyers.
A Constructive Shift in Whale Behavior
Beneath the surface of ETF flows, a notable trend is emerging. Analytics from CryptoQuant indicate that inflows of large Bitcoin holdings—often called “whale” deposits—to the Binance exchange plummeted by approximately 51% in December. These inflows dropped from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion. A reduction in coins moving to exchanges typically signals a decrease in immediate sell-side pressure.
Further data indicates that “new whales,” investors who entered the market near the cycle’s peak, are now reporting minimal realized losses. This suggests the capitulation phase for this particular cohort has largely concluded.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?
Miner Activity Hints at a Potential Bottom
Another historically significant signal is coming from Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem. The network’s 30-day hashrate declined by 4% in December, marking the most substantial drop since April 2024. Analysts at VanEck highlight a key pattern: historically, when the 90-day hashrate turns negative, Bitcoin’s returns over the subsequent 180 days have been positive 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%.
A falling hashrate points to less efficient miners exiting the network. This phase has frequently coincided with the formation of local price bottoms in previous cycles.
Price Consolidation and the Critical Levels Ahead
Following its overextended valuation after October’s all-time highs, Bitcoin is now trading close to its perceived fair value. The immediate technical hurdle is a resistance level at $90,533. A decisive break above this point could pave the way for a move toward $94,000. Conversely, a drop below recently established support threatens a retest of the $84,633 zone.
The ongoing tug-of-war between persistent institutional selling and increasingly constructive on-chain fundamentals is likely to find resolution in the first quarter of 2026. This period will reveal whether the underlying strength is sufficient to finally overcome the weight of ETF outflows.
Ad
Bitcoin Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Bitcoin Analysis from December 25 delivers the answer:
The latest Bitcoin figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Bitcoin investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from December 25.
Bitcoin: Buy or sell? Read more here...
