Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range near $90,000 following the latest Federal Reserve meeting. While the central bank’s projection of fewer interest rate cuts for 6 than some had hoped presented a headwind for risk assets, a deeper analysis reveals a contrasting narrative. On-chain metrics point to substantial buying from large institutional players, with three key indicators converging to establish a significant support level around the $80,000 mark.
Institutional Demand and Converging Metrics
A notable shift is occurring among major holders. Wallets containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been increasing their balances, while entities holding over 10,000 BTC have halted their selling patterns. This behavior mirrors activity seen just before the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. Data indicates that these so-called “whale” entities have collectively accumulated more than 375,000 Bitcoin over the past 30 days.
This accumulation aligns with a powerful technical confluence. Blockchain analysis identifies a cluster of crucial price bases. The True Market Mean, representing the average acquisition price of active market participants, stands at approximately $81,000. Simultaneously, the volume-weighted average cost basis for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs is $83,844. Furthermore, the average realized price for coins withdrawn from exchanges in 2024 hovers around $83,000. The convergence of these three metrics suggests a robust structural foundation. The defense of this zone was evidenced by a 15% price rebound after Bitcoin tested the $80,000 level on November 21.
Regulatory Tailwinds and ETF Flows
The regulatory landscape in the United States is progressing toward greater clarity. On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency confirmed that national banks are permitted to facilitate cryptocurrency transactions for their customers. In parallel, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rescinded outdated guidance. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also put forward a bipartisan draft bill aimed at granting the CFTC new authority over digital commodities.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has announced an “innovation exemption” for cryptocurrencies, slated for January. Additionally, the UK Treasury and the U.S. Treasury Department are collaborating on a transatlantic task force for digital markets, with initial recommendations expected around March 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?
In the ETF space, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded inflows of $237 million by Thursday, recovering from modest outflows the prior week. Strategy Inc. continued its aggressive accumulation strategy, purchasing an additional 10,624 BTC between December 1 and 7 at an average price of $90,615. The firm now holds 660,624 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $49 billion. In a significant development, asset manager Vanguard has opened its platform to crypto ETFs, granting its 50 million clients access to products from BlackRock and Fidelity, despite internal skepticism from executives like Quantitative Equity Chief John Ameriks, who has compared Bitcoin to a collectible toy.
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Technical Outlook
Despite the supportive on-chain structure, near-term macroeconomic challenges persist. The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades, a move that pressures carry trades and can affect crypto markets. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, now projects only two rate cuts for 2026, down from three. Options markets also present a potential volatility trigger, with Bitcoin contracts worth $23.8 billion set to expire.
From a technical perspective, the immediate resistance zone lies between $93,000 and $94,000. A sustained breakout above this level could pave the way for a move toward $99,000, provided selling pressure remains contained. On the downside, support near $89,400 must hold.
The direction for early 2026 will likely be determined by the ongoing battle around the $90,000 threshold. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks will be the flow of funds into ETFs, the activity of large holders, and any signals from the Federal Reserve ahead of its January meeting.
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