Bayer delivered a blockbuster first quarter that blew past analyst expectations, offering a clear sign that CEO Bill Anderson’s turnaround drive is gaining traction. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 9% year-on-year to €4.45 billion, well above the €3.93 billion consensus, sending shares up 6.7% to €39.40. The performance marks a sharp reversal from the fourth quarter of 2025, when Bayer posted a loss of €3.82 per share on revenue of €11.44 billion.
The surprise came from Crop Science. The agricultural division’s adjusted earnings surged nearly 18% to roughly €3.0 billion, fueled by the settlement of a licensing dispute with Corteva over soybean technologies — a one-off boost worth about €0.5 billion in revenue. A renewed dicamba approval in the US and a recovery in herbicide prices added further momentum. Pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, saw adjusted earnings fall 7.5%, though the decline was milder than feared. Patent expiries for Xarelto and Eylea continued to bite, but Nubeqa and Kerendia kept growing. Consumer Health expanded 5.3% on a currency-adjusted basis.
Net profit more than doubled to €2.76 billion, while core earnings per share climbed 12.9% to €2.71. The free cash flow picture was less rosy: a negative €2.32 billion, largely due to hefty payouts tied to legal settlements. That figure will remain under scrutiny as the company navigates its litigation over glyphosate-based herbicides. A Supreme Court ruling on the matter is expected by the end of June, and Anderson has argued the legal risks can be contained even without a favorable verdict.
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Management raised its full-year guidance. Bayer now expects revenue of €44.5 billion to €46.5 billion, with adjusted EBITDA between €9.4 billion and €9.9 billion. Core EPS is forecast at €4.10 to €4.60 — a range that straddles the analyst consensus of €4.25. Anderson is pushing ahead with restructuring, including the planned acquisition of Perfuse Therapeutics for up to $2.45 billion, while the portfolio review remains on hold for now.
The stock’s strong quarterly performance has pushed its year-over-year gain to around 55%, but technical signals warn of a pullback. The relative strength index stands at 76.7, indicating overbought territory. The shares had closed at €37.05 on Monday — down roughly 9% over the prior 30 days — before Tuesday’s rally lifted them toward the 52-week high of €49.17 set in February. Barclays reiterated its “Overweight” rating with a €48 price target, citing resilient profitability in the agricultural segment. All eyes now turn to the Supreme Court decision and whether Bayer can sustain its momentum without a new legal shock.
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