Bayer enters a make-or-break week on two fronts. The US Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in the Durnell glyphosate case at any moment, while Washington’s trade apparatus gears up for a formal investigation into German drug pricing that could lead to punitive tariffs on pharmaceutical exports. The company’s stock, which closed yesterday at €39.88, has climbed nearly 52% over the past twelve months but remains roughly 20% below its 52-week high of around €50 — a gap that reflects the heavy legal and political overhang.
A verdict that could reshape the litigation landscape
The Durnell case, which the Supreme Court heard earlier this term, will determine whether state-level failure-to-warn claims can override the US Environmental Protection Agency’s determination that glyphosate is not carcinogenic. A favourable ruling for Bayer would effectively shut down approximately 65,000 pending lawsuits. A loss, by contrast, would keep the litigation machine running and expose the company to further multi-billion-euro settlements. Industry observers expect the ruling within days, and its impact on the share price is likely to be binary.
Even before the Supreme Court speaks, the legal tab is mounting. Bayer’s net debt stood at €32.5 billion at the end of March, up 9% from the end of 2025, driven by negative free cash flow from legal payouts. In the first quarter alone, roughly €2 billion was spent on PCB and glyphosate settlements. For the full year 2026, management has pencilled in around €5 billion in litigation-related cash outflows. The free cash flow is forecast to sink as deep as minus €2.5 billion.
Trade tensions add a new layer of uncertainty
Alongside the courtroom drama, a trade dispute is escalating. The Office of the US Trade Representative launched an investigation into Berlin’s plan to impose additional mandatory rebates on patented medicines, starting at 3.5% in early 2027 and rising to 20% by 2030. A public comment period opened on June 25, and a hearing is scheduled for the autumn. The US has signalled that it will retaliate with tariffs on selected pharmaceutical companies as soon as July 31, with a second wave in late September. Even if Bayer shifts production to the US, the proposed tariff would start at 20% and climb to 100% over four years. Washington points to a separate agreement with the UK that grants British manufacturers tariff-free access until early 2029, underscoring the targeted nature of the pressure on German firms.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
Regulatory breakthroughs on the pharma side
Against this backdrop of legal and trade headwinds, Bayer notched two significant FDA milestones in recent weeks. On June 15, the agency approved Ambelvist (gadoquatran), a magnetic resonance imaging contrast agent that delivers just 0.04 mmol of gadolinium per kilogram of body weight — roughly 60% less than the standard dose of currently available macrocyclic agents. The approval was based on the phase III QUANTI studies, which showed visualisation scores comparable to full-dose conventional agents. The lower gadolinium load is particularly beneficial for patients requiring regular scans, such as those with multiple sclerosis or certain cancers. Bayer already held Japanese approval for Ambelvist and plans to launch in the US after completing preparatory work.
A week earlier, on May 19, the FDA accepted the filing for asundexian and granted it priority review. The oral Factor XIa inhibitor aims to prevent recurrent strokes after non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. In the OCEANIC-STROKE study, asundexian reduced ischaemic strokes by 26% relative to placebo without increasing bleeding risk. The European Medicines Agency has validated the application and started centralised review, while China’s National Medical Products Administration also granted priority review.
Analyst divergence reflects the uncertainty
The mix of pipeline progress and balance-sheet strain has produced an unusually wide range of analyst price targets. Of the 20 to 25 recommendations available, the average target sits between €40 and €45, but individual estimates span from below €35 to above €55 — a spread that underscores just how differently the market views the risks. Over the past seven trading days, the stock has gained roughly 7%, and it has now broken above its 200-day moving average of €36.45, a technical signal that some investors interpret as an early sign of recovery.
Whether that recovery can be sustained depends on events that are largely beyond Bayer’s control. The Supreme Court decision, expected within the week, will determine whether the glyphosate liability can be contained. The tariff review, with its 20% starting levy and escalation to 100%, threatens to erode the profitability of Bayer’s US pharmaceutical sales at a time when the company can least afford it. For a stock that has already rebounded sharply from its lows, the next few days will be decisive.
Ad
Bayer Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Bayer Analysis from June 25 delivers the answer:
The latest Bayer figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Bayer investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from June 25.
Bayer: Buy or sell? Read more here...
