The German chemical giant is heading into one of its most consequential days in years, with a packed agenda that will test both its restructuring strategy and the recent rally in its shares.
BASF’s stock has already surged roughly 21% since the start of 2025, closing last week at €54.32—just a whisker away from its 52-week high of €54.70. That resistance zone between €54 and €55 has proven stubborn, with the share price failing to break through it on three separate occasions since 2023.
The Dollar Drag
The biggest wild card for Thursday’s first-quarter results is currency. The euro’s recent strength against the US dollar is expected to have clipped as much as €200 million from operating profit. BASF had built its internal planning around an exchange rate of $1.20 per euro, a level that has been overtaken by the single currency’s rally.
Analysts are bracing for first-quarter revenues in a range of €15.6 billion to €18.2 billion, with the weak dollar, high European energy costs, and sluggish demand from the automotive and construction sectors all weighing on the top line.
However, the group is less exposed to direct US tariffs than some peers. Around 80% to 90% of the goods it sells in America are produced locally. The real pain is coming from the translation effect of a stronger euro.
Cost-Cutting Gains Momentum
Offsetting some of that currency pain is a cost-reduction program that is running ahead of schedule. By the end of 2025, BASF had already slashed costs by roughly €1.7 billion—€100 million more than its original target. The company expects that figure to reach €2.3 billion in annual savings by the end of 2026.
Whether that progress is enough to convince the market that the worst is over will be the key question when the numbers land at 7:00 a.m. on Thursday. Citigroup has already weighed in, raising its price target on the stock and calling the moment a long-awaited turning point for earnings growth, even as the broader European market remains challenging.
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A Spin-Off Takes Shape
Later in the day, attention shifts to Mannheim, where the annual general meeting will vote on the formal separation of the Agricultural Solutions division. The plan is to spin the unit off into a standalone subsidiary, paving the way for an initial public offering on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in 2027.
If shareholders approve the move, the business will get its own management board as early as May, with Livio Tedeschi—already the division’s head—set to take the reins. He will also join the parent company’s executive board from May 1, 2026.
Dividend and Buyback Plans
For income-focused investors, the agenda is equally packed. The board is proposing a dividend of €2.25 per share for the 2025 financial year, matching the previous year’s payout. The ex-dividend date is set for May 4, 2026, with the cash due to land in accounts on May 6.
Management is also asking for fresh authorization to buy back up to €4 billion worth of its own shares. Combined with the dividend, BASF is targeting total shareholder distributions of at least €12 billion through to 2028.
A Cautious Outlook
The company’s 2026 guidance offers a note of caution. BASF expects EBITDA before special items to come in between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion. The midpoint of that range—€6.6 billion—falls short of the roughly €7.0 billion that analysts had initially penciled in.
Thursday’s outcome will hinge on whether the market sees the cost-savings story as compelling enough to outweigh the currency headwinds and a subdued demand environment. The stock has been building momentum, but breaking through that €54 to €55 ceiling will require a convincing narrative—and the numbers to back it up.
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