The past two weeks have delivered a dizzying mix of news for BASF investors — a blockbuster earnings beat, a guidance upgrade, boardroom continuity, and a suddenly shelved property sale. Yet the stock has barely budged, closing Friday at €48.60, down 0.42 percent on the day. The market appears to be reserving judgment until July 29, when the German chemical giant releases its full half-year report and holds its analyst conference.
What’s giving investors pause is not the headline numbers themselves — they were undeniably strong. BASF’s preliminary second-quarter figures showed revenue jumping 16 percent to €17.2 billion, while EBITDA before special items surged from €1.6 billion to €2.4 billion year-on-year. Net income rocketed to €4.1 billion, compared with just €79 million in the same period last year. That eye-popping bottom line, however, was heavily flattered by the closing of the coatings division sale to private equity firm Carlyle on June 30, which generated a pre-tax book gain of roughly €3.9 billion.
The coatings windfall aside, the underlying operational improvement was enough for management to lift its full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance to a range of €6.9 billion to €7.7 billion, up from the previous €6.2 billion to €7.0 billion. The question hanging over the stock is whether that improvement is structural or merely a temporary recovery in basic chemicals pricing that is already beginning to fade.
Analyst Camp Splits Wide Open
That uncertainty has produced an unusually large divergence in analyst views. DZ Bank raised its fair value target from €63 to €64 on Wednesday, maintaining a “Buy” rating as analyst Peter Spengler pointed to the clear beat on consensus estimates. Deutsche Bank is similarly bullish with a €60 target and “Buy” recommendation.
On the other end of the spectrum, JPMorgan reaffirmed its “Underweight” stance with a €40 price target on July 17. Analyst Chetan Udeshi cited low visibility on whether the positive trends can be sustained, creating a chasm of €24 between the most optimistic and most pessimistic targets. Berenberg added to the caution on July 16, cutting its target from €52 to €47 and downgrading the stock to “Hold,” explicitly citing normalizing prices and demand risks in China. Bernstein, meanwhile, kept its “Outperform” rating and €61 target on July 17 but acknowledged ongoing uncertainties in the base chemicals segment.
The core debate boils down to one question: Was the second-quarter earnings beat driven by sustainable operational momentum in BASF’s core chemicals business, or was it a one-off boosted by the coatings sale and a temporary pricing tailwind that is already reversing?
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
Board Stability Amid Strategic Overhaul
Amid the financial noise, BASF’s supervisory board moved to lock in leadership continuity. On the same day the property sale was suspended, the board extended the mandates of labor director Katja Scharpwinkel and board member Anup Kothari early through the 2026 annual general meeting. The decision signals stability as the company pushes forward with its “Winning Ways” strategic realignment, which included the establishment of a “Core Transformation Office” in May under Julia Raquet to strengthen the core businesses.
The halted sale of roughly 3,300 company apartments through subsidiary BASF Wohnen + Bauen came as a surprise — the deal was announced in February and had been expected to proceed. Management cited the volatile market environment and changed interest rate conditions as reasons for the pause, though the individual sale of around 1,100 units continues. For investors, the move means forgoing a potential one-off gain, but it also removes a distraction from the operational story that management is trying to tell.
Recycling and Capacity Expansion Move Forward
Operationally, BASF has not been idle. On Wednesday, the company launched a “Tyre-to-Tyre” recycling partnership with Pirelli, Pyrum, and Synthos aimed at industrial recovery of recycling materials from end-of-life tires. Earlier, on July 16, BASF opened a new production facility for emollients in Düsseldorf, expanding capacity in the personal care products segment. These projects underscore the company’s dual focus on sustainability-driven innovation and specialty chemicals, even as the core basic chemicals business remains under scrutiny.
The Stock’s Modest Response
At €48.60, BASF shares trade roughly 12 percent below their 52-week high of €55.05 reached in April. The stock has gained 9.39 percent year-to-date, a respectable return but hardly a celebration of the guidance upgrade. The suspended apartment sale does not appear to have rattled investors — the operational trajectory is clearly the dominant concern.
The July 29 half-year report will be the critical test. If it confirms that the earnings improvement is broad-based and not merely a coatings-driven illusion, the bullish camp led by DZ Bank and Deutsche Bank is likely to gain the upper hand. If, however, the report reveals that the base chemicals pricing recovery is already losing steam — as Berenberg has warned — the skeptical JPMorgan scenario will move closer to reality. For now, the market is watching and waiting.
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