The gold mining sector, often touted as a haven during geopolitical turmoil, is currently delivering a starkly different message. Barrick Mining, which rode a blistering 93% rally over the past ten months, suffered a sharp reversal on April 21, with its shares shedding nearly 6% to close at $40.45. The culprit wasn’t company-specific news but a perfect storm of macro headwinds that sent the precious metal sliding.
Gold briefly dipped to around $4,700 per ounce, its weakest level in roughly a week, before settling near $4,763. The pressure came from multiple directions: a strengthening US dollar, rising bond yields, and fresh inflation fears stoked by climbing oil prices. The safe-haven bid that typically accompanies conflicts — including the ongoing US-Iran tensions — has conspicuously failed to materialize, with gold losing nearly 10% since the geopolitical friction escalated.
The Fed Factor and a Hawkish Tone
Adding to the drag, Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve chair, used his confirmation hearings to call for more aggressive action against inflation. For an asset like gold, which offers no yield, a higher interest rate environment is particularly punishing. Miners like Barrick tend to feel the pain disproportionately, as even modest declines in the metal price can trigger outsized moves in their equity.
The stock is now trading at roughly C$55.89, about 7% below its 50-day moving average and 22% off the January high of C$71.86. Technical indicators look bruised, with the relative strength index sitting at 38.6 — deep in bearish territory.
The Cost Squeeze Intensifies
Beyond the macro picture, Barrick is grappling with rising operational expenses. All-in sustaining costs jumped 9% in the fourth quarter, and management has guided for further increases in 2026, with total costs expected to land between $1,760 and $1,950 per ounce. That’s a significant headwind when the gold price is under pressure.
The current pullback follows a remarkable run. Between mid-2025 and April 2026, the stock surged roughly 93%, fueled by a standout fourth-quarter performance. Revenue jumped 44.6% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.04 easily beat the consensus estimate of $0.85. That report underscored just how leveraged Barrick’s profitability is to the gold price — when the metal climbs, the bottom line explodes.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?
What to Watch in May
Investors will get a clearer picture of how these dynamics are playing out when Barrick reports first-quarter results on May 11, before the market opens. A webcast with analysts is scheduled for 11:00 AM ET. The company has already laid out its 2026 production targets: 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces of gold and 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper. Management expects 45% of annual output to come in the first half, with Q1 traditionally the weakest period, particularly for copper.
The annual general meeting is set for May 8, held virtually.
Reko Diq: A Cloud on the Horizon
One operational wild card remains the Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan. Barrick has slowed development due to a deteriorating security environment and unresolved questions around capital structure, financing, and timeline. A review is underway and is expected to run until mid-2027. The project remains under active management, but investment has been scaled back.
Analyst Outlook
Despite the recent turbulence, the analyst community remains cautiously optimistic. The average price target for Barrick sits at $54.17. However, the macro outlook has shifted. Morgan Stanley recently cut its gold price forecast for the second half of 2026 to $5,200 per ounce, down from $5,700. J.P. Morgan sees gold averaging $5,055 in Q4 2026, rising to $5,400 by the end of 2027.
Whether Barrick can translate that eventual recovery into strong Q1 results will become clear on May 11. For now, the stock is caught between a fading rally and rising costs — a test of whether the bull case still holds.
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