Barrick Gold Corporation is experiencing a confluence of positive developments, providing significant momentum for the mining giant. The company recently reported fourth-quarter results that handily exceeded market forecasts, announced a substantial dividend increase alongside a new payout policy, and received a series of analyst upgrades. Furthermore, strategic plans to potentially spin off its North American gold assets through an initial public offering are advancing. However, questions remain about the sustainability of this positive trend, particularly looking ahead to the company’s 2026 production guidance.
Earnings and Revenue Surpass Expectations
Barrick’s financial performance for the final quarter of 2025 provided the initial catalyst. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.04, significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.85. Revenue also came in strong at $5.98 billion, a figure that not only topped the expected
Operational performance was bolstered by a combination of higher realized gold prices and increased production. Gold output reached 871,000 ounces, approximately 5% higher than in the third quarter. The average realized gold price for Q4 was $4,177 per ounce, a notable rise from $3,457 per ounce in Q3.
Analyst Sentiment Turns Bullish
In the wake of the earnings report released on February 5, several financial institutions revised their outlook on Barrick’s stock. The trend began with ATB Cormark upgrading its rating to “Moderate Buy.”
This move was followed by adjustments from other major firms:
* Scotiabank raised its price target from $43 to $63 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating.
* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) reiterated its “Outperform” rating with a price target of $71.
* UBS set a price target of $55.
* JPMorgan initiated coverage with an “Overweight” rating and a $68 price target.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?
The current analyst consensus sits at a “Moderate Buy” rating, with an average price target of $53.58.
Dividend Policy Overhaul and Payout Surge
Concurrent with its earnings release, Barrick declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $0.42 per share. This payout, scheduled for March 16 with a record date of February 27, marks a dramatic 140% increase over the Q3 dividend.
More importantly, the company introduced a new foundational dividend policy. Going forward, Barrick aims to base its shareholder distributions on 50% of its annual attributable free cash flow, signaling a commitment to returning more capital to investors directly linked to financial performance.
Strategic IPO and Forward-Looking Production Estimates
On the strategic front, Barrick’s board has directed management to advance preparations for a potential public listing of its North American gold assets. The new entity, referred to as “NewCo,” would consolidate the company’s joint venture interests in Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo, along with its wholly-owned Fourmile discovery in Nevada. Subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals, the IPO is targeted for completion by the end of 2026. The current plan involves selling a 10% to 15% stake in NewCo while Barrick retains control.
Looking further ahead, Barrick provided its 2026 production forecast. The company expects gold production to range between 2.90 and 3.25 million ounces, which is below the actual 2025 production of 3.26 million ounces. For copper, the company anticipates output of 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes.
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