Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has released exceptional preliminary results for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing dramatic profit expansion alongside significant revenue increases. The home healthcare provider expects revenue to reach between $616 million and $624 million, representing year-over-year growth of 21.0% to 22.6%. Even more impressive is the projected surge in net income, anticipated to land between $11 million and $15 million—a massive increase of 125.7% to 135.0%.
The adjusted EBITDA forecast is equally striking, projected at $77 million to $81 million. This signifies a powerful 61.0% to 69.3% gain. These preliminary figures establish a high benchmark for the company’s forthcoming official earnings report.
Spectacular Rally and Recent Pressure
The stock’s performance has been nothing short of remarkable, demonstrating a decisive shift in market sentiment toward growth optimism. Over the past 90 days, the shares have skyrocketed by 139.4%, and they have more than doubled since the start of the year.
However, this bullish trend recently showed signs of strain. After a previous close at $9.05, the stock is currently trading at $9.34, reflecting a single-day decline of 5.27%. Interestingly, this dip occurs even as the broader “Fear & Greed Index” registers a general “Fear” level of 39 points, despite a bullish reading for individual equities.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Aveanna Healthcare Holdings?
- 90-Day Return: 139.4%
- Year-to-Date Performance: Over 100%
- Q3 Revenue Growth: 21.0% to 22.6%
- Q3 Profit Growth: 125.7% to 135.0%
Secondary Offering Raises Questions
A notable secondary offering in October 2025 has introduced a note of caution. Selling shareholders placed approximately 10 million shares at $9.00 per share, generating roughly $90 million in volume. A critical detail is that the company itself received none of these proceeds; the entire sum went directly to the selling parties. Particularly eye-catching was an insider’s sale of 1.5 million shares, valued at $13.5 million.
Valuation Presents a Mixed Picture
Assessing Aveanna Healthcare’s valuation reveals a complex and somewhat contradictory scenario. A fair-value estimate of $9.61 per share suggests the stock is currently undervalued by about 5.8%.
Conversely, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio presents a significant concern. At 101.9, it vastly exceeds the industry average of 20.3 and the peer-group average of 34.5. This extreme valuation multiple prompts the question of whether it can be sustained, especially with persistent wage inflation and a nationwide nursing shortage posing potential threats to future profit margins.
Earnings Report as the Defining Catalyst
All attention now turns to the official quarterly report, scheduled for release on Thursday, November 6, 2025. The central question for investors is whether the final numbers will confirm the stellar preliminary results. The subsequent conference call at 10:00 a.m. ET is expected to set the directional tone for the stock in the weeks ahead.
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