The Danish pharmaceutical giant is mounting a two-front strategy to protect its GLP-1 franchise as patent cliffs loom. At the European Congress on Obesity (ECO) in Istanbul, Novo Nordisk presented 52 studies designed to reinforce the clinical superiority of its blockbuster Wegovy — a data dump timed to counter the imminent arrival of cheaper generics. At the same time, the oral version of the drug is racking up prescriptions at a pace that has already caught Wall Street’s attention.
The patent threat is most acute in large, price-sensitive markets. From 2026, exclusivity on semaglutide will expire in China, India and Brazil, where at least 15 domestic drugmakers are developing copycat products. Eleven of those candidates are already in late-stage trials. To defend its turf, Novo Nordisk must shift patients onto newer, still-patented therapies such as higher-dose injections of Wegovy and the oral formulation, as well as its experimental combo CagriSema.
The early results from that pivot are encouraging. The oral Wegovy tablet was approved by the FDA in December 2025 and launched in the US at the start of this year. By mid-April, more than 2 million prescriptions had been written, and by late April the tally exceeded 2 million, according to the secondary article. Citi responded by raising its peak annual sales forecast for the pill to 50 billion Danish kroner and bumping its price target on the stock from 275 to 290 kroner, though the bank kept a neutral rating due to the intensifying competitive landscape. Sydbank described the launch as stronger than anticipated, noting that it gives Novo Nordisk a time advantage over Eli Lilly’s rival oral GLP-1, Foundayo, which reached the market later.
The data blitz in Istanbul provides the scientific underpinning for that commercial push. A pooled analysis of the STEP trials examined adults aged 65 and older taking a 2.4 mg dose of semaglutide. Over 68 weeks, body weight fell by an average of 15.4%, versus a 5.1% drop in the placebo group. Nearly 30% of participants lost at least 20% of their body weight. The rate of serious adverse events was higher in the semaglutide arm (19.0%) compared to placebo (12.7%), but researchers highlighted the drug’s positive impact on heart health and menopausal symptoms in women.
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Financially, the company is holding up despite a challenging outlook. In the first quarter of 2026, sales of semaglutide products — Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy — reached 63.25 billion kroner, accounting for roughly 65% of total quarterly revenue. Management has guided for a 4% to 12% decline in both revenue and operating profit for the full year, a slightly narrower range than previously indicated. To support the share price, Novo Nordisk completed a buyback tranche worth nearly 3.8 billion kroner and expects to return more than 60 billion kroner to shareholders over the course of 2026.
The stock has recovered some ground in recent weeks. On the German exchange it closed at €39.34, up 0.83% on the day and 22.67% over the past 30 days. But the longer-term picture remains bruised: the shares are still 11.94% lower year-to-date and 35.43% below where they stood 12 months ago, with the price trading 7.33% under the 200-day moving average.
Analysts remain split. TD Cowen set a price target of $42, citing US pricing pressure and the impact of the Most Favored Nation agreement, while SB1 Markets struck a more bullish tone with a 350-kroner target. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk is experimenting with alternative distribution channels: Amazon Pharmacy now offers same-day delivery for oral Ozempic tablets, a move that could secure additional market share as demand for oral GLP-1s accelerates.
For now, the company’s near-term fortunes hinge on converting the Congress data into doctor confidence and the strong US prescription numbers into sustained revenue. If the pill can maintain its pace and the pipeline arguments hold up against generics, the headwinds of 2026 may prove survivable.
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