The Dutch lithography giant ASML closed last week at €1,574.20, down 0.51% on Friday and 3.30% lower than the week before. On the surface, that looks like a mild pullback in a stock that has more than doubled from its August 2025 low of €593.60. But beneath the numbers lies a puzzle: a wave of analyst upgrades has pushed price targets well above €2,000, while the share price keeps drifting lower.
Within two weeks, at least five major banks raised their ASML targets. Bernstein’s David Dai led the charge, jumping from $1,971 to $2,623 — a 33% increase that implies over 48% upside from current levels. Dai’s argument hinges on a sharp upward revision to ASML’s capacity buildout for advanced logic and DRAM chips. He now expects 91 EUV systems to ship in 2027 and 113 in 2028, far above his earlier forecasts.
Other houses followed suit. Deutsche Bank lifted its target from €1,600 to €1,800, Morgan Stanley from €1,660 to €1,830, and Susquehanna went even higher, from €1,475 to €2,350. Bank of America pointed to a fully booked order book for the 2027 fiscal year. Over the past three months, eight buy ratings have been issued; the consensus on ASML is a strong buy.
Yet the stock has not responded. The reason lies in two converging headwinds that have little to do with ASML’s own fundamentals.
First, a sector-wide chill. Samsung Electronics posted record operating profit of 89.4 trillion won ($58.4 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, driven by the AI chip boom — a year-on-year surge of over 1,810%. But those numbers, while stunning, fell short of the most optimistic whisper forecasts. Asian chip stocks sold off sharply, triggering a trading halt in Korea’s Kospi, and the downdraft spread to European semiconductor names. ASML briefly touched €1,569, a 3.6% intraday drop.
Second, political pressure intensified. On July 10, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick raised allegations that ASML’s tightly controlled EUV machines — the €350–400 million tools essential for producing the most advanced AI chips — may have ended up in Chinese factories. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet flatly denied the charge, insisting the company’s tracking system makes unauthorized access or reverse engineering impossible. But the accusation injects fresh uncertainty into an already fraught export-control debate. Multilateral efforts are targeting tighter restrictions on DUV maintenance in China, a market that historically accounts for about a fifth of ASML’s system revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The controversy comes at a delicate moment. Leading foundries, including TSMC, have reportedly delayed adoption of ASML’s new High-NA EUV generation. And while the chip industry broadly is booming — SK Hynix debuted on Nasdaq on July 11 at a $30 billion valuation, closing at $168.01, and Applied Materials raised its 2026 semiconductor equipment growth forecast from 20% to over 30% — these tailwinds have not insulated ASML from the noise.
Technically, the stock sits roughly 6.5% above its 50-day moving average of €1,477.77 and nearly 10% below its 52-week high of €1,748.00, set on June 30. The 30-day annualized volatility stands above 64%, reflecting a market on edge. The relative strength index of 51.1 signals neutral territory — neither overbought nor oversold. On valuation, ASML trades at a P/E of about 60.3, slightly below the industry average of 65.1 but above the 53.5 that some analysts consider fair value.
Institutional investors have taken mixed positions. Kestra Advisory Services and Account Management LLC trimmed holdings in the first quarter, while Petix & Botte Co and Gradient Investments added meaningfully.
All eyes now turn to Wednesday, July 15, when ASML reports its second-quarter results before the market opens. The order backlog, which stood at €38.8 billion, will be the critical metric. Bank of America expects the order book for 2027 to be completely full by then, which could shift investor focus to the 2028 earnings potential. ASML’s own guidance for full-year revenue was raised in April to a range of €36–40 billion, from an earlier €34–39 billion, citing solid growth in a semiconductor market where demand exceeds supply.
One day after ASML reports, TSMC will release its own numbers — a key read-through for High-NA EUV demand. Meanwhile, a €1.8 billion share buyback program announced in January 2026 continues, with regular transaction updates published under EU market-abuse rules.
The stock has gained 59.28% year to date and more than 129% over twelve months. Whether that momentum resumes or stalls depends on whether the July 15 report can validate the analyst euphoria with fresh order data and a reaffirmed outlook — and whether the espionage allegations remain allegations, or become something more.
Ad
Asml Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Asml Analysis from July 12 delivers the answer:
The latest Asml figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Asml investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 12.
Asml: Buy or sell? Read more here...
