The week was a study in contrasts for ASML shareholders. A record-breaking quarterly report, a dividend hike, and a €12 billion buyback programme were overshadowed by a single sentence from Taiwan: TSMC will not use the company’s most expensive machines in mass production until at least 2029.
The Dutch lithography giant posted net sales of €8.8 billion for the first quarter of 2026, beating analyst expectations by roughly €300 million. Net profit climbed to €2.8 billion, also comfortably ahead of consensus. The gross margin came in at 53 percent.
Management used the strong start to lift its full-year guidance. Revenue is now seen landing between €36 billion and €40 billion, implying growth of around 16 percent at the midpoint compared with 2025. The gross margin forecast was set at 51 to 53 percent.
Yet the second quarter will bring a modest pullback. ASML expects the gross margin to dip to roughly 51 percent.
A Geographic Shift and a Curious Omission
The revenue mix revealed a notable geographic rotation. South Korea accounted for 45 percent of system sales in the quarter, while China’s share dropped to 19 percent from 36 percent in the previous three months. EUV systems — the high-priced flagship machines — made up 66 percent of system revenue, up from 48 percent.
One detail caught the attention of market observers: ASML for the first time declined to disclose specific numbers for new machine orders. The figure has long been seen as a key barometer of future business.
Shareholder Rewards and a New Face in the Boardroom
At the annual general meeting on April 22, shareholders approved a total dividend for 2025 of €7.50 per share, a 17 percent increase from the prior year. The final tranche of €2.70 went ex-dividend on April 24.
The buyback programme is gathering pace. ASML plans to repurchase €12 billion of its own shares by 2028, with €1.1 billion already spent in the first quarter alone. The AGM also authorised the board to buy back up to 10 percent of issued capital.
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Marco Pieters was appointed chief technology officer, expanding the executive board to six members.
TSMC’s High-NA EUV Pause Rattles Investors
The sharpest share price move of the week came not from Eindhoven but from Taiwan. TSMC said it would not deploy ASML’s next-generation High-NA EUV lithography machines in mass production until at least 2029. Each of these tools costs more than €350 million. ASML had expected broad adoption between 2027 and 2028.
The stock lost 3.3 percent in a single session. It closed the week at €1,240.80, still up roughly 1 percent on the week but about 4 percent below its 52-week high. A separate report put the closing price at €1,234.80, reflecting a gain of nearly 25 percent since the start of the year.
Bernstein analysts were unruffled. TSMC had already signalled last year that it would not use High-NA EUV for its A14 process node. The base case, Bernstein argued, had always been that the technology would arrive around 2030 with the A10 node. A slower adoption curve might even be neutral to positive for ASML, they noted.
UBS and Citi pointed to ASML’s monopoly in high-performance lithography. They expect High-NA EUV to account for 15 to 20 percent of lithography revenue by the end of the decade.
Intel offers a counterweight. The US chipmaker plans to use High-NA EUV for its 14A process node starting in 2027, providing an alternative demand pathway in the coming years.
AI Demand Keeps the Order Book Full
Beyond the High-NA EUV headlines, the underlying demand picture remains robust. Memory chipmakers report fully booked capacity for the current year, while logic chip customers are expanding production lines for multiple process nodes simultaneously. CEO Christophe Fouquet described order intake as “very strong,” though the company no longer publishes the exact figures.
The long-term ambition remains intact. ASML sees revenue potential of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins of 56 to 60 percent. Where in that range the company ultimately lands will depend heavily on whether TSMC adopts High-NA EUV by then.
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