The Dutch trade minister’s unscheduled trip to Washington on June 26 underscores how quickly ASML’s geopolitical risks have escalated. Sjoerd Sjoerdsma was there to lobby against the US MATCH Act, a proposed law that would widen export controls to cover older deep-ultraviolet immersion lithography systems still being shipped to China. The stock, which hit an all-time high of €1,710.00 just days earlier, closed the week at €1,582.00 — a 2.13% drop on Friday that rounded out a weekly decline of roughly 5%.
That retreat was part of a broader tech rout that began on June 23, when South Korea’s KOSPI index was slammed by sharp falls in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The sell‑off erased an estimated $1.5 trillion in global market capitalisation, fed by growing scepticism about sky‑high AI valuations and reports of delays in next‑generation high‑bandwidth memory (HBM4). ASML, tightly woven into the AI‑chip ecosystem, could not escape the downdraft.
The MATCH Act, however, cuts to the core of ASML’s business model. China currently accounts for between 19% and 20% of the company’s overall revenue — about 19% of system sales. While ASML’s management has stressed that Chinese customers are buying predominantly older‑generation kit, any further restrictions would strike a meaningful slice of the top line. The Dutch government opposes an expansion of sanctions, but whether that stance can withstand US legislative pressure remains an open question.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Against that uncertain backdrop, the fundamental case for the stock remains formidable. ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems, effectively holding a monopoly on the machines required to manufacture cutting‑edge AI chips. The order backlog stood at €38.8 billion at the end of 2025 and has since been estimated at roughly $45 billion. Revenue guidance for 2026 sits at €36 billion to €40 billion, and the company delivered first‑quarter net sales of €8.8 billion alongside a net profit of €2.8 billion. Shareholders are being rewarded with a dividend of €7.50 per share for 2025 — 17% higher than the prior year — while a buyback programme of up to €12 billion runs through 2028; in the first quarter alone, ASML repurchased roughly €1.1 billion of its own stock.
Yet the bear case has hardened in recent weeks. Beyond the China threat, reports indicate that key customers such as TSMC are hesitating on the high‑NA EUV upgrade cycle. Each of those machines costs between €350 million and €400 million, and any delay in adoption would remove the growth narrative that justifies a market capitalisation approaching €600 billion. Some chipmakers are exploring advanced packaging as a cheaper, interim alternative. Meanwhile, competition is stirring in niche segments: Nikon remains an established rival, and US startup xLight recently secured $150 million in government funding.
Technically, the stock is in a consolidation phase rather than a breakdown. The 50‑day moving average sits at €1,402.25 and the 200‑day average at €1,129.01 — both well below current levels. The relative strength index of 54.8 indicates neither overheating nor panic, leaving room for the next catalyst: quarterly results due in July. Until then, investors will watch two variables closely: the progress of the MATCH Act through the US Congress, and any official guidance on the high‑NA delivery pipeline. If the 50‑day average holds as support, the path back toward the €1,710 record is open. A break below that level, however, would expose the 100‑day average near €1,298.49 — a potential pullback of about 18% from here.
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