The arithmetic is striking while the stock sits 16 percent below its June peak: ASML has been absorbing roughly €77 million to €79 million of its own shares every trading day. Between August 17 and 21, the Dutch lithography specialist snapped up between 48,280 and 51,815 shares daily at prices ranging from €1,506.98 to €1,618.13 — levels comfortably above the current quote of €1,464.20.
That buyback cadence, part of the €12 billion repurchase program announced in late January for the 2026–2028 period, is management’s quiet way of saying the recent pullback overshot. The market, however, has other things on its mind.
A Political Cloud Over Veldhoven
The most pressing of those concerns is Washington. According to media reports, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been conducting private conversations with senior ASML executives since April over allegations that an EUV system may have reached China in violation of existing export restrictions. ASML has dismissed the claims as unfounded rumors, and no formal investigation has been confirmed.
The regulatory overhang has proven sticky. The stock has shed roughly 7.2 percent since the company raised its revenue guidance over a month ago — a move that ordinarily would have been greeted with enthusiasm. Instead, geopolitical noise has drowned out the fundamental signal. News from around the same period that China had made its own progress on DUV lithography systems added another layer of unease, though the share price has ticked up modestly since.
Wall Street’s Counter-Narrative
The sell-side is pushing back on the gloom. Bank of America reaffirmed ASML as a top pick in late August, calling the recent decline unjustified. Barclays and DBS have also reiterated buy ratings in the same window. One analyst held firm on a price target of $2,452 as recently as August 25, pointing explicitly to what he sees as an unwarranted valuation discount relative to the company’s fundamental worth.
The clustering of bullish voices within days of each other suggests institutional investors are treating the slide as a technical correction rather than a fundamental re-rating. Technical indicators support that reading: the stock closed Monday at €1,461.00, roughly 4.9 percent below its 50-day moving average of €1,535.59, while the RSI at 42.3 points to a neutral consolidation phase rather than panic selling.
Just as ASML’s management sees the pullback as an overreaction, many employers overlook gaps in their workplace safety documentation until an incident forces the issue. A free Risk Assessment Toolkit with 41 ready-to-use templates and checklists helps you document hazards systematically and stay compliant. Download the free Risk Assessment Toolkit
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
The Operational Backbone
Beneath the noise, the business continues to deliver. Second-quarter net sales came in at €9.3 billion with a gross margin of 54.0 percent and net income of €2.9 billion. The company has guided third-quarter revenue to €11.0–12.0 billion with margins between 55 and 57 percent, and paid an interim dividend of €1.88 per share in August.
The strategic pipeline is equally robust. ASML plans to boost low-NA EUV capacity by roughly 30 percent in 2027 versus the current year, with a further increase for 2028 under consideration. Intel Foundry has meanwhile commenced series production of its “Panther Lake” Core Ultra processors using ASML’s High-NA EUV systems — a significant endorsement from a marquee customer for the newest equipment generation.
The 2026 outlook, raised just over a month ago to €43–45 billion in revenue at a gross margin of 54–56 percent — up from a prior range of €36–40 billion — underscores the momentum.
A Two-Sided Risk Equation
The China question, however, refuses to fade. ASML’s CFO has pegged China’s share of total 2026 revenue at roughly 20 percent, and the US Congress is examining the MATCH Act, legislation that would effectively bar ASML from exporting DUV lithography equipment to China. The combination of a potential legislative ban and the EUV export allegations creates a regulatory matrix that no amount of buyback activity can fully neutralize.
The 30-day volatility reading of 40 percent captures the tension: strong operational numbers and steady share repurchases on one side, unresolved regulatory questions on the other. Investors will be watching closely whether Lutnick’s conversations harden into formal proceedings or quietly dissipate. The next concrete data point arrives on October 14, when ASML reports third-quarter results.
Ad
ASML Holding Stock: Buy or Sell?! New ASML Holding Analysis from September 1 delivers the answer:
The latest ASML Holding figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for ASML Holding investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from September 1.
ASML Holding: Buy or sell? Read more here...
