The Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML has commenced 2026 with extraordinary momentum, fueled by a historic surge in orders. The Veldhoven-based company reported its highest-ever quarterly bookings in the final period of 2025, a direct result of the relentless global demand for cutting-edge chipmaking technology required for artificial intelligence applications.
Shareholder Returns Reach New Heights
In a significant move for investors, ASML announced a new share buyback program worth €12 billion on January 28, 2026. This initiative is scheduled to run until the end of 2028. Concurrently, the company raised its dividend for 2025 to €7.50 per share, marking a 17% increase from the previous year. An interim dividend of €1.60 per share is set for payment on February 18, 2026, with the stock trading ex-dividend on February 9.
Stellar Quarterly Performance Exceeds Forecasts
Revealing its quarterly figures on January 28, 2026, ASML delivered a performance that surpassed market expectations across key metrics. Net sales for the fourth quarter reached €9.7 billion, edging past the consensus estimate of €9.6 billion.
The standout figure, however, was the monumental order intake of €13.2 billion—more than double the analyst forecast of approximately €6.3 billion. Within this total, orders for Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems accounted for €7.4 billion, which industry analysis suggests equates to over 30 machines.
Key Q4 2025 Financials:
– Net Sales: €9.7 billion
– Gross Margin: 52.2%
– Net Profit: €2.8 billion
– Order Backlog at Year-End: €38.8 billion
For the full 2025 fiscal year, ASML achieved revenue of €32.7 billion and a net profit of €9.6 billion, with a gross margin of 52.8%.
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Optimistic Guidance Points to Sustained Growth in 2026
Management has provided an outlook for 2026 that anticipates continued expansion. The company forecasts annual revenue between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a projected gross margin in the range of 51% to 53%. The midpoint of this sales guidance, €36.5 billion, would represent an 11.6% increase over 2025 and exceeds the prior analyst consensus of €35.1 billion. For the opening quarter of 2026, ASML is targeting sales of €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion.
AI Expansion Drives Customer Sentiment and Order Mix
Company leadership highlighted that customers now express a “significantly more positive assessment of the mid-term market situation,” grounded in expectations of sustained AI-related demand. This optimism is reflected in the expanded capacity plans of major foundries and memory chip manufacturers.
The memory sector represented 56% of the Q4 order volume, a notable jump from 47% in the third quarter. This shift indicates that DRAM producers are ramping up investments in infrastructure specifically for AI servers.
Geographic Revenue Mix Sees Shift
ASML’s sales exposure to China declined in the fourth quarter, accounting for 36% of quarterly revenue compared to 42% in Q3 2025. Looking ahead to the 2026 fiscal year, the company expects system sales to China to constitute roughly 20% of total revenue, down from approximately 33% in 2025.
The Annual General Meeting of Shareholders is scheduled for April 22, 2026. Prior to that, ASML will publish its 2025 Annual Reports in accordance with US GAAP and IFRS on February 25.
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