SpaceX shares closed at $145.30 on Friday, a 4.5% decline that carved out a new all-time low since the company’s June IPO. The intraday floor of $145.07 left the stock 36% below its June 16 peak of $225.64, wiping away most of the post-listing euphoria and bringing the market capitalisation to roughly $1.91 trillion. Yet as the equity tumbled, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest did the opposite — it went on a buying spree.
The fund manager added 116,971 SpaceX shares across four ETFs in a single trading session. ARK’s flagship Innovation ETF (ARKK) picked up 68,914 shares, the Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) took 21,467, the Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) absorbed 17,896, and the Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) bought 8,694. The allocation was strikingly uniform: each purchase represented almost exactly 0.15% of the respective fund’s net asset value, pointing to a centrally coordinated decision rather than independent calls by separate portfolio managers. To fund the purchases, ARK trimmed positions in AMD and Deere & Co, selling roughly 0.10% and 0.06–0.09% of fund assets respectively.
Friday’s haul was not an isolated move. Earlier in the week, when the stock was hovering near a then-52-week low of $145.20 before settling at $148.26, ARK had already bought 112,046 shares via ARKK, plus additional tranches in its other vehicles. The cumulative accumulation fits a longer-term conviction: ARK published a pre-IPO valuation model in 2025 pegging SpaceX’s enterprise value at $2.5 trillion in its base case and as high as $3.1 trillion in an optimistic scenario by 2030. With the current market cap at roughly $1.91 trillion, the firm appears to view the pullback as a discount on a multi-trillion-dollar thesis.
The retreat comes just days after what should have been a bullish catalyst. On 7 July, SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100, triggering an estimated $4.3 billion in passive inflows from index-tracking funds such as the QQQ. Because only 3–5% of total shares are publicly tradable, the rebalancing created an unusually tight supply-demand dynamic. Yet the mechanical buying pressure could not offset growing unease about stretched valuation multiples — especially after the stock’s explosive post-IPO debut left it trading at levels that some on Wall Street view as detached from fundamentals.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
That scepticism is loudest among a vocal minority. MoffettNathanson analyst Zhu has questioned why the stock continues to slide below its IPO price of $135 despite the index inclusion. One prominent hedge-fund manager went further, likening SpaceX to “the equivalent of Dogecoin,” arguing that even Bitcoin looks cheap by comparison. On the other side, Raymond James initiated coverage on 7 July with a “Strong Buy” rating, and Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas issued a bullish note the following day. The average 12-month price target among 27 analysts stands at $242.22 — implying roughly 67% upside — but the range is astonishingly wide, stretching from $62 to $800. Twenty-six analysts rate the stock a buy; only one recommends selling.
The next major event is earnings on 6 August 2026, which also marks the earliest possible release of insider shares under the lock-up agreement. Insiders will be allowed to sell up to 20% of their stakes on that date. An additional 10% can be unlocked if the stock closes at least 30% above the IPO price — that is, above $175.50 — on five out of ten consecutive trading days. The remaining shares will become tradable in stages through December 2026. Until then, the stock is caught between passive index-driven demand, a deeply divided analyst community, and questions about how quickly SpaceX’s ambitions in rocket launches, Starlink connectivity, and AI infrastructure can translate into earnings that justify a trillion-dollar-plus valuation.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: Buy or Sell?! New SpaceX Analysis from October 11 delivers the answer:
The latest SpaceX figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for SpaceX investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from October 11.
SpaceX: Buy or sell? Read more here...
