A wave of bullish analyst sentiment is sweeping over Intel as the chipmaker approaches its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. Several market experts have issued significant upgrades and sharply raised price targets, fueling speculation that the long-awaited turnaround for the semiconductor giant may be gaining credible momentum. The focus centers on its technological roadmap, the nascent foundry business, and burgeoning demand driven by artificial intelligence applications.
Market Performance Reflects Growing Confidence
This analyst-driven reassessment is already visible in the equity’s performance. The stock closed at $48.41 in the latest session, hovering just below its recent 52-week peak of $48.72. Over a twelve-month horizon, the share price has more than doubled, significantly outpacing the broader market’s more modest trajectory.
The recovery from its 52-week low of $16.61 is particularly striking, representing a gain of approximately 191%. This powerful rally has pushed the shares well above their key moving averages, underscoring the strength of the recent upward move.
Significant Upgrades Pre-Earnings
The immediate catalyst for this renewed optimism is a series of fresh research notes published just before the Q4 2025 results.
Seaport Research Partners upgraded its rating on Intel from “Neutral” to “Buy,” simultaneously setting a Street-high price target of $65. Analyst Jay Goldberg highlighted several key factors, including meaningful technological progress and the strength of the product pipeline. He pointed to the “Intel 18A” manufacturing node, assessed as highly competitive, and the upcoming “Panther Lake” processors, which are expected to help recapture near-term market share. Goldberg also noted strong interest from PC original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and original design manufacturers (ODMs), and identified an opportunity for Intel to attract external foundry clients as competitor TSMC grapples with capacity constraints.
In a separate move, HSBC also made a substantial adjustment. Analyst Frank Lee lifted his recommendation from “Reduce” to “Hold” and nearly doubled his price objective from $26 to $50. Lee’s thesis is heavily centered on the server segment and the ongoing AI boom. He anticipates that demand for server CPUs will see a pronounced increase due to the rise of so-called “agentic AI systems.” As AI evolves from a simple assistant to more autonomous systems capable of planning and executing tasks independently, Lee expects a greater need for general-purpose computing power—an environment where Intel could regain strength. Consequently, he forecasts server shipment growth of 15% to 20% in 2026, far exceeding consensus estimates of roughly 4% to 6%.
Forthcoming Earnings as the Next Catalyst
Intel is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on January 22, 2026. Options pricing suggests the market is braced for significant volatility, with moves of nearly 9% in either direction already being factored in.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intel?
Investor attention will be fixed on several critical areas within the report and accompanying guidance:
- PC and Data Center Revenue Outlook: The market will scrutinize whether the anticipated recovery in the PC market and the AI-driven server demand are reflected in the company’s forward-looking statements.
- Progress on Intel 18A: Concrete updates on yield, schedule, and production capacity for this advanced node are considered a cornerstone of the turnaround narrative.
- Foundry Business Traction: Evidence that Intel can successfully secure external customers for its manufacturing and advanced packaging services is a key benchmark.
- Roadmaps for Panther Lake and Nova Lake: Clear timelines and performance commitments for these next-generation processors are vital for reinforcing confidence in the product strategy.
The sustainability of the recent analyst upgrades will largely depend on Intel’s ability to substantiate these points with hard numbers and credible commentary.
The Foundry Segment: A Strategic Wild Card
Intel’s ambitious foundry business, where it aims to compete directly with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) by manufacturing chips for other designers, represents both a major opportunity and a significant risk.
The opportunity is clear: TSMC’s capacity constraints present an opening for Intel to attract clients seeking additional manufacturing or packaging options. However, the segment remains intensely capital-intensive and costly to operate against technologically formidable competition.
A central element of this strategy is the $28 billion investment in new chip fabrication plants in Ohio, announced back in 2022. Successfully bringing these facilities online on schedule and securing major foundry customers to utilize their capacity would provide a powerful argument for Intel’s viability as a serious alternative to the established Asian manufacturing leaders.
In the coming months, concrete customer announcements, progress reports on the Ohio construction, and reliable updates on the operational timeline will be crucial in determining whether the current wave of confidence translates into a sustained re-rating of Intel’s stock.
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