The stock has more than tripled over the past twelve months and still trades 27% below its April peak. Yet for Almonty Industries, the most consequential seven-day period in recent memory begins on Monday — when it joins the Russell 1000 — and the most consequential date on the calendar is still 18 months away, when the US military must stop sourcing tungsten from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Neither catalyst is priced in fully. That tension underpins the current pullback.
Consolidation After a Historic Run
Almonty shares closed at C$24.18 on Thursday, up 3.38% on the session, but the recovery masks a broader retreat. The stock has shed 11.4% over the past 30 days and sits roughly 27.5% below the 52-week high of C$33.35 reached in April. The relative strength index reads 43 — neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought.
Year to date, the equity remains up about 96%. The long-term numbers are even more striking: a 332.6% gain over twelve months. That was driven by a structural shift in tungsten markets that has now entered a new phase.
The Numbers Start to Tell a Turnaround Story
Almonty’s entry into the Russell 1000 — and by extension the Russell 3000 — reflects more than just market momentum. The company has finally graduated from a pure development story to a producing miner with credible financials.
First-quarter 2026 revenue soared 221% to US$25.4 million, fuelled by record tungsten prices. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of US$2.4 million to a gain of US$6.1 million, while operating cash flow flipped to US$9.7 million from negative US$4.4 million in the year-ago period. The net loss narrowed to US$5.3 million, partly because a non-cash warrant-valuation charge of US$25.8 million did not repeat. At the end of March Almonty held US$259.9 million in cash and reported working capital of US$169.5 million.
The operating margin now stands at 31%. The project-development phase that consumed years of capital is largely behind the company.
A $773 Million War Chest for Sangdong
That cash position is about to grow. In early June Almonty placed US$700 million in convertible notes due 2031, carrying a 2.25% coupon, and underwriters exercised their greenshoe in full for an additional US$100 million. Net proceeds after expenses landed around US$772.7 million.
The bulk of that capital is earmarked for the Sangdong mine in South Korea, where Phase 1 began commercial operations in March 2026. The processing plant currently handles 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, targeted for 2027, will double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes and about 4,600 tonnes of concentrate per year.
Some of the note proceeds will also retire existing debt, while a portion funds capped-call structures designed to limit dilution upon conversion. A separate development pipeline includes the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, expected to reach production in the second half of 2026, backed by a 15-year offtake deal with the US defence industry. Almonty has moved its headquarters to Dillon, Montana — a move that positions it to benefit directly from US critical-minerals funding programs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Why Tungsten Matters More Than Ever
Tungsten possesses the highest melting point of any metal — 3,422 °C — along with density near gold and extraordinary hardness. It is indispensable for kinetic-energy penetrators, drone components, engine turbines, semiconductor fabrication and nuclear fusion applications. No substitute exists.
China controls more than 80% of global tungsten output, and in February 2025 it slashed exports under national-security grounds. That was not a temporary adjustment. Beijing has weaponized tungsten as a strategic lever, deliberately narrowing access for Western buyers. The Asia-Pacific volume-weighted average price for 99.9% tungsten rose roughly 273% between April 2025 and April 2026, and the Critical Minerals Institute now lists it among the five most closely watched metals.
The Only Western Producer That Already Produces
West of China, meaningful tungsten production is scarce. Almonty is currently the only significant western producer that has moved from development into commercial output. Sangdong’s average grade of about 0.51% tungsten trioxide is roughly triple the global average, and the mine’s expected life exceeds 45 years. At full capacity it could supply about 40% of all tungsten demand outside China.
Analysts at Bank of America and Oppenheimer have flagged Almonty as a preferred beneficiary of government procurement decisions. The company also holds the Gentung Browns Lake project, which analysts believe could be tied to direct US military supply chains.
January 1, 2027: The Date That Cannot Move
What makes Almonty’s investment case unusual among mining equities is that its most powerful near-term catalyst is not a drill result or a quarterly earnings beat. It is a regulatory calendar date with military and diplomatic consequences.
From January 1, 2027, the US Department of Defense is prohibited from buying tungsten that originates in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea for defence applications. Western supply chains for tungsten will take at least two years to build, analysts estimate. Almonty is already producing.
CEO Lewis Black summed up the challenge at the CMI Summit in May: governments can announce strategies and capital markets can finance projects, but without skilled workers to build and operate mines, concentrators and downstream systems, nothing moves. “The West hollowed out its industrial knowledge for decades. Rebuilding critical raw material supply chains will take more than money,” he said.
What Happens Next
Russell index inclusion — effective at Monday’s open — forces passive funds benchmarked against the US indices, representing about US$12.2 trillion in assets, to hold Almonty shares irrespective of analyst opinions. That structural demand should improve trading liquidity and broaden institutional coverage over time. Market makers and active fund managers have already been positioning in recent weeks, as is typical before the annual reconstitution.
The stock’s market capitalisation stands at roughly €4.63 billion. That valuation prices in the tungsten squeeze, not the current earnings profile. With the post-April consolidation already knocking nearly 30% off the April high and the 2027 deadline drawing a year and a half closer every day, the immediate test for Almonty is whether the Russell inclusion can arrest the slide and reset expectations for the longer-term narrative.
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