The tungsten producer that spent the past year shedding its legacy listings is now accumulating sell-side endorsements at a similar pace. Almonty Industries has drawn back-to-back analyst initiations in recent weeks — Jefferies opened coverage Wednesday with a Buy rating and a $26.25 price target, following a mid-August nod from GBC AG that carries a $30 target — as the company’s operational turnaround in South Korea gains external validation.
Both research houses anchor their optimism on the same pillar: the long-term offtake agreement for Sangdong tungsten that Almonty expanded with Global Tungsten & Powders in July. The contract now runs 21 years, with total volume increased 40% to 4.41 million mtu and annual minimum take-or-pay commitments set at 210,000 mtu. GBC notes the deal also carried roughly 6.3% improved pricing terms. That contractual backbone gives analysts the visibility needed to model a mine that only began processing stockpiled ore in June.
The Capital Structure Story
The July agreement was just one piece of a broader financial repositioning. Almonty closed an oversubscribed $800 million convertible note offering in June — bearing a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031 — which helped lift its cash position to C$1.2 billion as of June 30, up from C$268.4 million at the end of 2025. The balance sheet strength, combined with a buyback program of up to 14.4 million common shares — roughly 5% of outstanding equity, or as much as $300 million over 36 months — signals management’s conviction in the current valuation.
The operational numbers are beginning to match the financial firepower. Second-quarter results showed revenue of $43.0 million, a 498% jump year over year, with mining segment earnings of $26.1 million. GBC’s projections extend that trajectory dramatically, forecasting revenue of $365.9 million in 2026, climbing to $1.32 billion in 2027 and $1.49 billion in 2028. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to leap from $329.7 million to $1.22 billion and then $1.30 billion across those same years.
A Cleaner Listing, A Consolidating Market
The corporate simplification reached its final stage this week. Almonty’s delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange took effect July 31, following the earlier exit from the Australian Securities Exchange, where CHESS Depositary Interests were suspended the prior Friday. Trading now concentrates on Nasdaq and Frankfurt — a structure designed to pool liquidity and raise visibility among US institutional investors.
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That streamlining coincides with a tungsten market undergoing its own realignment. Spot prices sit at $3,087.50 per mtu, a level roughly 9.4 times the value at the start of 2025, reflecting tight supply conditions and the push by Western economies to reduce dependence on Chinese sources. GBC characterized the Sangdong production start as an exceptional milestone within this context, while Jefferies framed Almonty’s role as central to building non-Chinese supply chains for a commodity increasingly viewed as strategically critical.
The Gap Between Price and Target
The shares closed at €15.28, essentially flat on the day, roughly 26% below the 52-week high of €20.61 reached in April. The stock has more than quadrupled from its September low and is up 92% year to date, yet both analyst targets imply substantial further upside — albeit on different currency bases that make direct comparison with the euro price imprecise.
GBC, which set its $30 target with a view date of December 2027, continues to flag the equity as high-risk despite its optimistic forecasts. The 30-day volatility reading of 86% underscores the speculative character of the investment. For now, the converging elements — a secured offtake agreement, a fortified balance sheet, a streamlined listing structure and fresh analyst endorsements — present a coherent narrative. Whether the valuation gap closes depends on Sangdong’s ability to consistently deliver the contracted volumes, a question that only the coming quarters of production data will answer.
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