The price of ammonium paratungstate – the benchmark for tungsten trading – has more than tripled in less than five months, rocketing from USD 862 per metric tonne unit in early January 2026 to around USD 3,140 in mid-May. That 200-plus percent surge has landed squarely in Almonty Industries’ profit-and-loss statement, transforming what was once a speculative story into a cash-generating operation.
First-quarter figures for 2026 tell the tale. Revenue jumped 221 percent year-on-year to CAD 25.4 million, propelled by both higher tungsten prices and stable production from the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Operating cash flow swung to positive CAD 9.7 million from a negative CAD 4.4 million in the same period a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached CAD 6.1 million, and mining operating profit climbed to CAD 13 million versus just CAD 0.8 million in the prior-year quarter.
Almonty’s balance sheet also emerged stronger. As of March 31, 2026, the company held CAD 259.9 million in cash, providing ample runway for the next phase of expansion. That war chest is crucial because the production ramp-up is still in its early stages.
Sangdong, the company’s flagship asset, is on track to reach full Phase 1 commercial operation in the third quarter of 2026. At that point the plant will process around 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, yielding roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, targeted for 2027, would more than double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes annually – equivalent to over 460,000 metric tonne units. The mine sits at the heart of South Korea’s semiconductor cluster, and tungsten hexafluoride is a critical processing gas for chip fabrication. Japanese suppliers have already warned Korean chipmakers that their inventories may only last until mid-2026.
Meanwhile, Almonty is advancing its US presence through the Gentung Browns Lake Project in Montana. Production is slated to begin in the second half of 2026, with a potential annual capacity of 140,000 MTU. More than 90 percent of that volume is already under long-term contracts with US defense and technology customers. That dovetails with a forthcoming Pentagon mandate requiring all tungsten for military applications to come from non-Chinese sources starting in 2027. Almonty is one of the few Western producers positioned to fill that gap.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The market is pricing in that future. At a closing price of CAD 27.09, Almonty’s market capitalisation stands at roughly CAD 7.35 billion – a staggering 147 times trailing-twelve-month revenue of CAD 50 million. Analysts at Bank of America justify that multiple by projecting a massive revenue leap: CAD 670 million this year and CAD 1.32 billion in 2027. Alliance Global analyst Jake Sekelsky recently lifted his price target to USD 26.25, and the consensus from nine analysts is a “Strong Buy.”
The technical picture, while stretched, remains constructive. After hitting a record high of USD 24.41 on April 17, the stock corrected roughly 23 percent before finding support at the lower boundary of its long-term uptrend channel. Since that test, the shares have staged a rebound of more than 23 percent, keeping the trend structure that has been in place since early 2025 intact. The relative strength index sits at 74.5 – technically overbought, but the stock is holding just above its 50-day moving average of CAD 26. The 52-week high of CAD 32.07, set in April, is still about 15 percent above the current level.
Adding to the positive momentum, Almonty will install a new chief financial officer on June 1, 2026. Jorge Beristain, a former metals and mining analyst on Wall Street, takes over from Brian Fox. Insider activity has also been supportive: over the past three months, there have been purchases and no significant sales, while insider ownership stands at about 10.2 percent.
The biggest variable going forward is whether Sangdong delivers on its third-quarter ramp-up. If it does, the operational progress will likely overshadow the technical indicators. If it stumbles, the valuation remains exposed. For now, Almonty is betting that record tungsten prices and a tightening Western supply chain will carry it through the next milestone.
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