Almonty Industries has hit a string of significant milestones in recent weeks — first production at its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, a materially expanded 21-year supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, and a planned exit from the Toronto Stock Exchange at month-end. Yet the share price tells a more complicated story. After closing Friday at C$19.25, the stock sits 42.28% below the 52-week high of C$33.35 reached in April and has lost a quarter of its value over the past 30 days alone.
The disconnect stems from three simultaneous forces that are pulling the equity in opposing directions. The processing plant at Sangdong began handling stockpiled ore in June 2026, shifting Almonty from developer to producer. That operational milestone was quickly followed on July 14 by an expansion of the GTP offtake agreement: the contract now runs 21 years, the volume has risen 40% to 4.41 million MTU, and the price tag improved by 6.3%. At current APT prices, analysts estimate the deal underpins roughly $490 million in annual revenue for Phase I — enough to cover about 90% of the mine’s capacity in that initial stage.
But those achievements have been overshadowed by a sharp technical correction. The relative strength index sits at 38.1, and the stock is trading 21.77% below its 50-day moving average of C$24.61. The 200-day line at C$18.96, a stone’s throw from the current close, has emerged as the single most watched support level. A break below it could reopen the path toward the 52-week low of C$4.36 — a level that would imply a complete repricing of the producer premium the stock had built up during its development phase.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Two distinct narratives now compete for investor attention. The bullish camp points to the sealed off take contract and the fact that Sangdong is finally in operation. With tungsten prices near record highs — driven in part by Chinese export restrictions that have reshaped global supply patterns — Almonty’s ability to deliver conflict‑free concentrate to Western defense and industrial customers gives the story a long‑run anchor. The stock has still gained 209.49% over the past 12 months and 59.49% year‑to‑date. Supporters argue that once the ramp‑up shows consistent throughput, the current weakness will look like an entry point rather than a trend.
The bearish case centres on execution risk and dilution. The plant is currently processing low‑grade stockpiled ore, and higher feed grades are only expected as mining progresses deeper into the deposit. The revenue profile therefore still reflects commissioning constraints, not steady‑state economics. On top of that, Almonty recently placed a convertible note worth $700 million at 2.25% interest, with a maturity in 2031, plus an overallotment that brought the gross total to $800 million. After fees, net proceeds came to roughly $772.7 million. For a company of Almonty’s current market capitalisation and revenue base, that is a substantial injection of capital — and one that, until the new cash flow arrives, sits as a potential drag on existing shareholders.
Meanwhile, the operational calendar is dense. The TSX delisting takes effect at the close on July 31, 2026, after which the shares will trade exclusively on Nasdaq. That adds a liquidity variable for Canadian investors, though trading on the U.S. exchange is unaffected. The next real test will be the first production update following the July processing start. The data will need to show that the plant can deliver throughput consistently enough to validate the $490 million annual revenue assumption. Until then, the share price is likely to stay tethered to the 200‑day average — and whichever side of that line the stock settles on will set the narrative for the months ahead.
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