Almonty Industries has posted a staggering 221% jump in revenue, yet its shares have shed nearly a third of their value over the past month. The disconnect between an accelerating business and a slumping stock price is creating a rare entry point for long-term investors, with two prominent hedge funds recently piling in with combined stakes worth more than $41 million.
Encompass Capital purchased roughly $25.6 million worth of Almonty stock in the fourth quarter, while Next Century Growth Investors acquired about $16 million in shares. These bets follow a massive capital raise: in early June, the company placed $800 million in convertible notes, earmarked for debt refinancing and general working capital.
A Market Shaped by Geopolitical Scarcity
The institutional interest is no accident. Tungsten has become one of the most strategically important metals on the planet, and Almonty sits at the center of an unfolding supply crisis. China controls roughly 88% of global tungsten production and has steadily tightened its grip. In February 2025, Beijing imposed strict export licenses; since the start of 2026, only 15 designated companies can ship tungsten products abroad.
The results have been dramatic. Chinese exports of tungsten-ammonium paratungstate collapsed from 782 tonnes a year ago to just 243 tonnes. Spot prices have more than tripled since January, reaching $3,040 per metric ton unit by the end of May.
The Pentagon is pulling in the opposite direction. Starting in January 2027, a new US directive will bar American defense contractors from using Chinese tungsten in their supply chains. As the only large-scale Western producer with an active mine outside China, Almonty is uniquely positioned to bridge that gap.
Sangdong: From Dormant Mine to Strategic Asset
Almonty’s salvation lies in South Korea. The Sangdong mine, after lying dormant for over three decades, began commissioning its first phase in March 2026. The ore grade averages 0.51%—roughly three times the global average—and management estimates a mine life of more than 45 years.
First production data is expected this month, with the initial processing stage fully ramped by July. The company is already planning Phase 2, which will lift annual processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore and double tungsten output to approximately 4,600 tonnes. At full tilt, Sangdong could satisfy about 40% of the world’s tungsten demand outside China.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Beyond 2027, global demand for tungsten could reach 210,000 tonnes by 2035, while non-Chinese supply remains constrained by ageing mines and a lack of refining capacity. Almonty’s expansion plans are not just about company growth—they are a hedge against industrial paralysis in the West.
Building a China-Free Supply Chain
Almonty has doubled down on its American pivot. In April 2026, the company moved its headquarters from Canada to Dillon, Montana, and snapped up the Gentung Browns Lake project in the same state. That mine is expected to start production by the end of 2026.
The timing aligns with Washington’s ban on Chinese tungsten for Pentagon contracts. To deepen its ties with the defense establishment, Almonty has partnered with American Defense International, a consulting firm that provides direct access to US military procurement channels.
Analyst Optimism Meets Market Skepticism
Wall Street has taken notice. Oppenheimer and DA Davidson have set a target of $25 per share, while B. Riley Financial sees fair value at $23. The consensus among analysts is a near-term price of roughly $20.
Despite those bullish calls, the stock has retreated from its highs. After peaking at C$33.35 last year, the shares now trade around C$24.89 on the Toronto Stock Exchange—or about $18 in New York. The 52-week low was C$4.67, meaning the stock is still up more than 428% over the past twelve months and roughly 107% year-to-date.
The current relative strength index of 47.8 suggests the selloff hasn’t triggered panic, nor euphoria. With a market capitalization of €4.32 billion, the valuation already reflects some of the future growth, but the structural scarcity of tungsten and the ongoing derisking of the Sangdong expansion argue that the story is far from priced in.
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