The long-awaited moment arrived on July 1, when Almonty Industries fired up its processing plant at the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, officially transitioning from mine developer to producer. But instead of sparking a sustained rally, the milestone has been swallowed by a volatile market that is now more interested in cash flow than ceremony — and by a wave of insider selling that has removed $227.6 million worth of stock from the float over the past three months.
Shares of the tungsten junior have swung wildly since the start of July. On July 10, the stock surged nearly 11% to close at $16.31 in New York, following a close of $14.70 the prior day. In Toronto, the move was even sharper, with a 12.4% gain to C$23.38. Just two days later, the stock ranged from $14.75 to $16.70 before settling at $16.62, with volume of 8.85 million shares exceeding the daily average of 7.23 million. Despite the mid-month pop, the July range of $14.30 to $17.40 leaves the stock roughly 30% below its April 52-week high of C$33.35 ($24.41).
That drop from the peak coincides with a major insider de-risking campaign. Over the past 90 days, directors, officers and other insiders have sold a net $227.6 million in Almonty equity, with $75.1 million coming from executives alone. Director Mark Trachuk was among the most visible sellers, disposing of 200,000 shares on July 2 at $24.07 each, pocketing $4.8 million. The selling also included large blocks from CEO and founder Lewis Black and director Daniel D’Amato, both of whom had received new equity-linked compensation — deferred share units for Trachuk and D’Amato, and restricted share units converted to common stock for Gustave Perna — on the very day the Sangdong plant went operational.
The insider activity has not gone unnoticed by the analyst community, but it has not dented their overall bullish stance. DA Davidson lifted its price target after a virtual investor meeting with Black, citing positive signals from Sangdong, a potential U.S. government partnership and a solid balance sheet. The broader Street sees Almonty as a “Moderate Buy,” with one “Strong Buy,” four “Buy” and one “Sell” recommendation, yielding an average target of $21.88. That price implies roughly 32% upside from the current level, but the stock now trades about 8% below its 50-day moving average of C$25.40.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The tension between insider selling and positive analyst sentiment reflects a deeper shift in how the market values Almonty. Since the start of the year, the stock has nearly doubled in U.S. dollar terms (up 85-95% depending on the exchange) and has more than tripled over 12 months — a run that was driven by expectations of precisely the Sangdong ramp-up that is now underway. But those expectations are now priced in, and the market is demanding proof: actual concentrate sales, consistent throughput, and operating cash flow that turns geological promise into financial reality. When the mill started in early July, the stock promptly fell 30% from its local highs.
The macro backdrop could hardly be more supportive. China’s escalating export restrictions on tungsten are squeezing supply outside the country, pushing prices to record levels. Sangdong, with its strategic position in the semiconductor supply chain and high-purity processing capability, is a direct beneficiary. Yet even this tailwind has not insulated Almonty from the post-milestone hangover. The stock’s annualized 30-day volatility stands at nearly 97%, a figure that underscores how sentiment-driven the trading has become.
For investors who got in early, the recent correction is little more than noise in a year that has delivered returns of more than 200% over 12 months. But for those eyeing an entry now, the calculus is more nuanced. With a relative strength index of 48, the stock is neither overbought nor oversold — it is consolidating after a spectacular run. The next catalyst will not be an announcement, but a data point: the first tonnage of tungsten concentrate shipped to customers. Until Almonty can demonstrate sustained commercial production, the tug-of-war between long-term strategic positioning and short-term execution risk will continue to drive the stock’s dramatic swings.
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