Trading in Almonty Industries options surged 166% above its daily average on Thursday, with 5,235 call contracts changing hands against a typical volume of roughly 1,970. The spike signals that the market is bracing for significant price swings in a stock that has already delivered a 738% gain over the past twelve months.
The wolfram producer’s shares closed at €2.90 on Xetra, up more than 6% on the day, with turnover of approximately 288,000 shares — triple the normal daily volume. On the Toronto Stock Exchange, the stock traded at C$30.78, just 4% below its 52-week high from April 17.
A Strategic Relocation to Montana
Almonty moved its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana in mid-April, a decision that deepens its ties with US government agencies and defense contractors. The company is positioning itself as a cornerstone of a Western-aligned tungsten supply chain, aiming to reduce dependence on dominant producers.
The shift follows a Nasdaq listing in July 2025 that raised $90 million, and a subsequent financing round late last year that added another $129 million to the company’s coffers. Almonty also acquired the Gentung tungsten project in Montana, with production slated to begin by the end of 2026. Washington has explicitly exempted tungsten from recent US tariffs, giving the company a strategic advantage.
Sangdong’s Comeback and the Supply Crunch
Almonty’s flagship asset remains the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which resumed first-phase production in March 2026 after more than three decades of dormancy. The timing is critical: inventories at some semiconductor manufacturers are expected to last only until mid-2026, creating urgency for new supply.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Tungsten has moved beyond a niche commodity. Defense and semiconductor industries both depend on it, and the current supply squeeze is driving demand. Almonty’s ability to stabilize Sangdong’s output in the current quarter will be a key determinant of the stock’s next move.
The Valuation Debate
Analysts are divided on Almonty’s fair value. Texas Capital recently initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $25 price target, while a discounted cash flow model suggests the stock is significantly undervalued. However, a high price-to-book ratio makes it appear expensive relative to peers.
The company’s financials tell a more sobering story. Revenue rose to $32.5 million last year, but the net loss ballooned to nearly $162 million. Management attributes the red ink primarily to non-cash accounting charges from derivative revaluations. Those numbers explain the stock’s persistent volatility.
Technical Signals and Risk Profile
The relative strength index stands at 76.7, technically in overbought territory. Annualized volatility is 102%, meaning this is not a position for the faint-hearted. The options activity on Thursday suggests traders expect further movement, though the direction remains uncertain.
The stock has gained roughly 156% since the start of the year. But the gap between operational reality and strategic ambition remains wide. For the rally to sustain, management must deliver on Sangdong’s production targets and keep costs under control at Gentung. Until then, the volatility that has defined Almonty’s recent history is likely to persist.
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