A critical shortage is brewing for the world’s chipmakers. Japanese suppliers have warned giants Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) could be depleted as soon as this summer. This essential gas for etching up to 200 layers in advanced 3D-NAND chips is now caught in a geopolitical vise, with China having turned off the tap. This crisis has propelled a relatively small Canadian miner, Almonty Industries, into a position of extraordinary strategic importance.
The numbers underscore the severity of the squeeze. China currently controls roughly 88% of global tungsten supply, and its export restrictions have hit Japanese processors—who supply about 25% of the world’s WF₆—particularly hard. With no viable substitute for tungsten in semiconductor manufacturing, the race is on for secure, non-Chinese sources. Almonty’s recently commissioned Sangdong mine in South Korea is emerging as the primary alternative.
Sangdong began official operations in March. It processes approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually with a remarkably high grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide, triple the global average. The mine’s life is projected at over 45 years. While commercial production is slated for Q2 2026, the initial phase is expected to yield about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year. Management plans to double capacity by 2027, a level that could satisfy up to 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.
Financial markets have taken vigorous note. Almonty’s stock has surged approximately 162% year-to-date and over 700% on a year-over-year basis, recently closing at 31.53 CAD. This rally has attracted significant institutional interest; the number of funds holding the stock jumped by more than 55% last quarter to 107, with VanEck Associates accumulating a position of about 11.2 million shares.
Analyst sentiment is notably bullish. Texas Capital recently initiated coverage with a “Strong Buy,” joining DA Davidson, B. Riley Financial, and Oppenheimer. Price targets range from 19 to 25 USD. This breadth of coverage is unusual for a resource company of Almonty’s size. The optimism is fueled by a potent mix of soaring prices and strategic tailwinds. The tungsten price has more than tripled this year, from around $900 to roughly $3,000 per metric tonne unit. Sangdong was developed when prices hovered near $300, pointing to potentially exceptional margins.
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Furthermore, Almonty has secured crucial backing from the U.S. government. Its tungsten ores and concentrates have been exempted from new retaliatory tariffs, contingent on a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. This positions the company as a preferred supplier ahead of a mandate, effective January 2027, requiring U.S. defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese sources.
Looking beyond Sangdong, Almonty is developing the Gentung-Browns-Lake project in Montana’s Beaverhead County, which holds mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes. Targeted for production readiness in the second half of 2026, it would mark the first domestic U.S. tungsten production in over a decade.
The current valuation reflects high expectations. The stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of 22.9x, far above the Canadian mining sector average of 3.3x. However, a discounted cash flow model suggests a fair value of 43.36 CAD per share, indicating the market is pricing in future cash flows from Sangdong’s ramp-up. Analyst consensus forecasts revenue to leap to around 231 million CAD in 2026, a significant increase from the 32.5 million CAD expected for full-year 2025.
The coming weeks hold key catalysts. The quarterly report on May 21 will deliver the first concrete production data from Sangdong’s start-up phase. Separately, the board must decide by April 30 on a potential share consolidation at a ratio of up to five-to-one. The annual general meeting on June 8 will likely provide further commentary on the planned Phase 2 expansion. For investors and chipmakers alike, Almonty’s next steps are critical.
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