A critical exemption from US reciprocal tariffs has been granted to Almonty Industries, strengthening its position as a non-Chinese tungsten supplier just as a severe shortage threatens global semiconductor production. The US government specifically excluded the Canadian miner’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from duties, materials it supplies under a long-term contract to Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. This move bolsters a key supply chain for a metal deemed essential for defense, aerospace, and advanced electronics.
The timing is pivotal. China, which alongside Russia and North Korea controls an estimated 95% of global tungsten supply, drastically tightened export controls in late 2025. This has sent shockwaves through the market, with the spot price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) soaring 534% to $2,250 per tonne by mid-March 2026. The price of tungsten metal itself rocketed to a record high above $3,000 last week, more than tripling since late December.
Now, the semiconductor industry faces an imminent choke point. The crisis centers on tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆), a specialty gas indispensable for manufacturing cutting-edge chips below two nanometers. With its extremely high melting point, tungsten has no viable substitute for forming electrical connections in integrated circuits. Japanese suppliers have warned their South Korean customers that deliveries of this critical gas could halt by summer, with industry inventories projected to run dry by June.
Almonty’s recently restarted Sangdong mine in South Korea is positioned to become a primary solution. Once the world’s largest tungsten deposit, Sangdong recommenced commercial production in December 2025. Operating at full capacity, it is expected to supply approximately 40% of the world’s tungsten demand outside China. Its geographic proximity to the threatened chip fabs in South Korea provides a massive logistical advantage. The mine’s Phase 1 operation processes about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate.
This transition from developer to active producer is driving a wave of analyst optimism. GBC analysts sharply raised their price target from C$9.00 to C$28.60, citing the structural shortage and production start. Others have followed suit in March: B. Riley Financial increased its target to $23 from $17, DA Davidson set a $25 target, and Oppenheimer raised its target to $19 from $16. Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its 2026 EPS forecast to $0.45 from $0.23, anticipating Q2 2026 earnings of $0.12 per share.
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Financial projections reflect a transformative year. Analysts forecast Almonty’s revenue will surge from C$32.5 million to C$747.7 million in 2026, with expected EBITDA reaching C$488.1 million—a margin exceeding 50%. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to fall from $345 to $266 per metric tonne unit (MTU).
The company is not stopping with Sangdong. Its Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana is slated for production readiness in the second half of 2026, targeting an annual capacity of roughly 140,000 MTU. This expansion is strategically aligned with a looming US defense mandate requiring contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers starting January 1, 2027.
Institutional investors are taking significant positions. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty stock jumped over 55% last quarter to 107. Van ECK Associates now holds 11.2 million shares worth approximately $99 million, while new entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors with a $25.6 million position and Next Century Growth Investors with $16.3 million.
Financially, the company fortified its balance sheet with a December capital raise, leaving it with C$268.4 million in liquid funds to execute its plans. This follows a fiscal 2025 where revenue grew 13% to C$32.5 million, though increased operating costs pushed adjusted EBITDA to negative C$17 million. After multiplying over the past twelve months, the stock currently trades about 22% below its 52-week high of C$30.32, with market observers viewing recent pullbacks as consolidation within a broader uptrend. The coming quarters will test Sangdong’s ability to reliably meet its production targets, ultimately determining if the current valuation is justified.
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