A 14% weekly slide has trimmed Almonty Industries shares to 23.00 CAD, but the broader picture is one of accumulating catalysts. The RSI is hovering at 40.9, nearing oversold territory, and the stock sits about 14% below its 50-day moving average of 26.78 CAD. Yet against that technical backdrop, two structural forces are converging: a Pentagon-imposed deadline for tungsten supply and an index-driven wave of forced buying that takes effect on Monday.
South Korea’s Sangdong tungsten mine, which Almonty brought back online in March 2026 after more than three decades of idleness, is now processing roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and producing around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, slated for 2027, will more than double that capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore and 4,600 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. With an ore grade of roughly 0.51% tungsten trioxide — about three times the global average — and a projected mine life exceeding 45 years, Sangdong alone could cover about 40% of non-Chinese tungsten demand when fully ramped.
But Almonty is not betting solely on tungsten. A parallel drilling programme at the adjacent Sangdong molybdenum project has now completed approximately 37% of the planned 26 holes, or about 12,000 metres. The assay results so far match historical grades, suggesting a continuous mineralised body. That matters because South Korea has officially declared a national molybdenum supply crisis, with inventories running thin and the government urging private companies to secure supplies. Almonty has already locked in an exclusive off-take agreement with SeAH M&S, a subsidiary of the SeAH Group, covering 100% of the molybdenum output for the entire life of the mine.
The financial inflection point is clear. First-quarter 2026 revenue surged 221% to $25.4 million, adjusted EBITDA swung from a $2.4 million loss to a $6.1 million profit, and operating cash flow reached $9.7 million. A net loss of $5.3 million was almost entirely driven by non-cash valuation effects. Cash on hand stood at $259.9 million at the end of March, and a subsequent oversubscribed issuance of $700 million in convertible bonds with a 2.25% coupon maturing in 2031 has padded the war chest further. Proceeds are earmarked for hedging, refinancing, working capital, and potential acquisitions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The geopolitical clock is ticking. From January 1, 2027, the Pentagon is barred from buying tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. China controls roughly 88% of global tungsten production, and its export restrictions are already squeezing supply: Chinese APT shipments collapsed from 782 tonnes to 243 tonnes year-on-year. North American tungsten prices have jumped 76.6% from $19.35 per kilogram in Q1 2025 to $34.17 in Q1 2026. CICC estimates the global supply gap will exceed 17% of demand between 2026 and 2028. New mines in Australia, Canada, and Portugal are in the pipeline but won’t deliver meaningful volume before 2027.
Almonty’s Montana project — the Gentung-Browns-Lake deposit acquired in late 2025 — is expected to start production in the second half of this year, giving the company a dual supply chain that completely bypasses Chinese material. The timing dovetails neatly with the Pentagon deadline.
Market mechanics are about to add another layer of demand. Starting Monday, June 29, Almonty joins the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. Passive funds that track these benchmarks, collectively managing around $12.2 trillion, will be forced to hold the stock regardless of analyst sentiment. That structural buying pressure should gradually improve liquidity and broaden institutional ownership, though the immediate impact on the share price remains to be seen.
The stock has shed about 31% since hitting an April high of 33.35 CAD, yet the 12-month gain still stands at a staggering 296%. The annualised 30-day volatility of 90.91% underscores that double-digit weekly moves are par for the course. Almonty’s long-term ambition — dubbed the “Korean Trinity” of tungsten mining, refining, and molybdenum production under one roof in South Korea — remains a work in progress. Phase 2 expansion, the tungsten oxide plant, and the molybdenum project are all unfinished, and mining megaprojects routinely run late and over budget. A sharp reversal in tungsten prices would squeeze margins quickly, but the structural supply deficit argues against that for now. The next clear catalyst is the drilling progress report from Sangdong.
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