A supply chain crisis is brewing in the semiconductor industry that could bring some of Asia’s most advanced fabrication plants to a standstill as early as July. The bottleneck is not silicon or rare earths — it is tungsten, an obscure metal essential for making the 3- to 7-nanometer chips powering the AI revolution. Two major Japanese chemical producers, Showa Denko Kanto and Central Glass, have warned Samsung, SK Hynix and DB HiTek that inventories of tungsten hexafluoride are critically low, and alternative suppliers are scarce. Japan alone accounts for a quarter of global production of this critical gas, but the feedstocks depend on Chinese raw materials — and Beijing has slammed the door.
China tightened its export controls in January, limiting tungsten product shipments to just 15 state-approved companies and effectively dictating volumes, timing and destinations. With China, Russia and North Korea controlling roughly 95% of the world’s tungsten supply, the West finds itself in a precarious position. The Pentagon will ban purchases of Chinese-sourced tungsten from January 2027, yet the United States has not commercially mined the metal since 2015. Into that gap steps Almonty Industries, a rare primary tungsten producer operating entirely outside China’s sphere of influence.
Production Turns Profitable Just in Time
Almonty’s long-awaited Sangdong mine in South Korea began commercial operations in March, and the impact on the books has been immediate. First-quarter revenue surged 221% to CAD 25.4 million, while operating cash flow swung from negative to positive CAD 9.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA flipped to a profit of CAD 6.1 million. The facility now processes 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate, and a second expansion phase scheduled for 2027 will double that capacity. A CAD 773 million convertible bond with a 2.25% coupon, maturing in 2031, is financing the ramp-up.
The mine sits in South Korea, which is also grappling with a molybdenum supply emergency. Almonty’s ongoing drilling program at Sangdong’s molybdenum project is 37% complete, with 26 planned holes totaling roughly 12,000 metres. Intercepts so far confirm historical grades, and the company plans to release a production update in the week starting June 22. That update could serve as the next major catalyst for the stock.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Russell Index Entry Widens the Investor Base
Almonty’s transformation from a development-stage miner to a profitable producer is also earning it a spot on the large-cap stage. Effective June 29, the company will be added to the Russell 1000 and the Russell 3000 indices — a remarkable leap for a stock that traded as low as CAD 4.70 just twelve months ago. Index inclusion forces institutional fund managers who benchmark against the Russell to put Almonty on their radar, broadening the shareholder base and improving liquidity.
The market has already priced in much of the good news. At CAD 26.57, the shares have more than quintupled from the July 2025 trough and are up more than 120% since the start of the year. Yet the relative strength index sits at a neutral 52.7, and the stock is trading just below its 50-day moving average of CAD 27.20 while remaining well above the 200-day line at CAD 17.59. The April high of CAD 33.35 stands about 20% above current levels — a reachable target if both the Sangdong update and the index inclusion provide positive momentum. The 100-day moving average at CAD 24.63 is the key support level to watch on any pullback.
Management Reshuffle Reflects Geopolitical Ambition
Almonty has not only relocated its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana; it has also stacked its boardroom with military credentials. At the annual meeting on June 9, shareholders approved the addition of two retired U.S. generals — Gustave F. Perna and Alan Estevez — with more than 99% of the vote. A week earlier, the company appointed Jorge Beristain, a former Deutsche Bank mining analyst, as chief financial officer. The message is clear: Almonty is selling not just tungsten, but a geopolitical insurance policy.
The company’s Gentung project in Montana could start production in the second half of 2026. With Washington banning Pentagon purchases of Chinese tungsten next January, the timing aligns with a structural shift in Western defense and semiconductor supply chains. Almonty’s annualized 30-day volatility of nearly 99% is a reminder that critical-mineral stocks remain high-risk, high-reward plays. But for investors betting on a China-free tungsten pipeline, the pieces are falling into place.
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