The Airbus share ended the week at €48.60, up 0.41 percent on Friday and 6.11 percent higher over the past month. The stock now sits nearly three percent above its 200-day moving average of €47.19, a technical signal that the medium-term trend remains intact. Yet with the Farnborough International Airshow beginning Monday and a closely watched business update scheduled for July 21, the coming days will test whether that momentum can be sustained or fades under the weight of persistent production headaches.
Two rival camps, one giant deal
In the run-up to the airshow, leasing heavyweight SMBC Aviation Capital is weighing an order for roughly 100 narrowbody jets. Both Airbus and Boeing are in advanced talks – the European planemaker pushing its A320neo, the US rival pitching the 737 Max. No final decision has been announced, but industry insiders expect the deal to be unveiled during the show itself, which runs from July 20 to 24 in Hampshire, Hampshire, and is expected to draw more than 1,400 exhibitors from 41 countries.
Separately, Airbus is also negotiating with Saudi low-cost carrier Flynas over additional A320neo narrowbodies and A330neo widebodies as part of a fleet expansion plan. The SMBC and Flynas talks come against a broader backdrop of demand that the London-based aviation consultancy IBA estimates could result in up to 875 firm orders and purchase intentions at Farnborough.
Forecasting a record-breaking showfloor
IBA’s forecast breaks down by segment: about 480 narrowbody aircraft – more than 55 percent of the total – alongside 280 widebodies, 75 regional jets, 25 turboprops and 15 freighter versions of widebodies. If the projection materialises, this year’s airshow would comfortably surpass the 601 aircraft ordered at the 2025 Paris Air Show and the 438 recorded at Farnborough 2024, though it would still fall short of the all-time high set in 2023.
The expected flurry, according to IBA chief economist Stuart Hatcher, is driven by tightening production slots. Delivery positions for the Airbus A320neo family and Boeing 737 Max are becoming scarce through around 2033, while widebody availability at Airbus does not begin to loosen until 2032 at the earliest. Airlines are therefore locking in positions early rather than waiting. The A330neo in particular is gaining traction, with carriers across Asia, the Middle East, Europe and North America evaluating large-scale long-haul fleet renewals. IBA lists American Airlines, Etihad, Qantas, Air India, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, China Southern and Singapore Airlines as potential widebody buyers.
Caution from the sell side
Not everyone expects a torrent of announcements on the tarmac. RBC Capital Markets points out that the combined order backlog of Airbus and Boeing already stands at roughly 16,000 aircraft, providing a multi-year visibility that reduces the urgency to set new records at every show. In the first half of 2026, the two manufacturers together logged 1,210 orders, above the 995 average for the same period of 2022 to 2025. RBC therefore predicts a more moderate direct take-up at Farnborough itself.
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That measured view is echoed by some industry observers who argue that the real focus of the show will be less on headline order numbers and more on whether Airbus and Boeing can actually build what they have already sold. The global backlog has swollen to more than 17,000 aircraft, yet engine bottlenecks continue to keep finished jets parked on the ground.
Delivery momentum vs. profit pressure
On the operational front, Airbus delivered 351 aircraft in the first half of 2026, a 15 percent increase year-on-year – its strongest first-half performance since 2019. Internally, the company is targeting more than 900 deliveries for the full year, though the official guidance remains at the more conservative 870 units cited by Reuters. The June spike was helped by clearing a backlog of China deliveries and a slight easing of engine shortages, but both are temporary fixes rather than structural improvements.
The profit picture tells a starker story. Adjusted operating profit slumped 52 percent in the first quarter to €300 million, pulled down by lower deliveries caused by supply snags at engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney. That earnings hole will be a central theme when CEO Guillaume Faury and CFO Thomas Toepfer host the business update live from London on July 21, two days after the airshow begins.
Stock setup: room to run, but a narrow path
The Airbus share closed Thursday at €48.40, putting it 6.32 percent above its 50-day average, indicating a healthy short-term uptrend. The Relative Strength Index of 53.8 sits in neutral territory, leaving room for further gains if the SMBC deal falls Airbus’s way or if the IBA order forecast proves conservative. However, the stock still trades 12 percent below its January high of €55.00.
The week ahead thus offers two formative tests for the equity. A strong order showing at Farnborough would validate the demand narrative, while a convincing business update that reassures on delivery targets could narrow the gap to the year’s peak. Conversely, if orders underwhelm relative to IBA’s projections or the earnings outlook raises fresh doubts, the recent share-price momentum may quickly lose altitude.
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