Market strategist Tom Lee of Fundstrat has identified MP Materials, a leading producer of rare earth elements, as a standout equity pick for 2026. This endorsement comes after a volatile period for the stock, which remains approximately 40% below its 52-week peak despite a remarkable 285% surge in value during 2025. Lee’s bullish thesis positions the company alongside industrial powerhouses like Eaton and GE Vernova as a primary beneficiary of accelerating investments in artificial intelligence and national infrastructure.
A Consensus of Analyst Confidence
Lee’s optimistic outlook is far from solitary. A wave of recent analyst actions has provided substantial support for MP Materials, framing the current price as an entry point.
* Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to “Overweight” and increased its price target.
* Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a “Buy” recommendation and a $77 price target.
* BMO Capital also sees further upside, setting a $75 target.
The collective market consensus now sits near $79 per share, suggesting a potential upside of roughly 30% from current trading levels. Lee’s rationale hinges on an anticipated environment of accommodative monetary policy, where materials stocks could outperform the broader market.
Insider Sales Cast a Cautious Shadow
Contrasting the Wall Street enthusiasm, significant transactions by corporate insiders have emerged. CEO James Litinsky executed a sale of shares worth over $24 million on December 5. Shortly after, CFO Ryan Corbett divested holdings valued at approximately $2.3 million. While insiders still retain a collective stake of nearly 9.5% in the company, the scale of these profit-taking events advises a measure of investor prudence.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?
A Fundamental Pivot Underpins the Bull Case
The positive forecast for 2026 is fundamentally linked to MP Materials’ strategic evolution. The company is transitioning from a pure-play mining operation into a vertically integrated producer and a supplier of critical national resources. Key partnerships with the U.S. Department of Defense and Apple have been instrumental, providing price floors and purchase commitments for planned magnet production facilities.
This strategic shift is expected to manifest financially starting next year. Following an anticipated loss for 2025, analysts project a return to profitability in fiscal 2026, with earnings per share forecasted at $0.47.
The coming year represents a critical operational milestone. MP Materials is slated to bring its new heavy rare earths facilities online and commence commercial magnet production. Investors will gain their first concrete insights into whether this operational scaling is on track with the release of the next quarterly results, expected on February 20, 2026.
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