A 684% Revenue Blast and a 45% Margin: Nebius Enters Nasdaq-100 With Both Rule-Book and Fundamentals on Fire

The math behind Nebius’s ascent is deceptively simple. Passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 must own its shares from 22 June 2026 – that is a red‑letter date for any stock. But the story goes well beyond mechanical buying. The company just reported first‑quarter revenue of $399 million, up 684% year‑on‑year, while its adjusted EBITDA margin nearly doubled to 45% from 24% in the prior quarter. Those are the kind of numbers that turn a index‑inclusion trade into a durable investment thesis.

More than 200 index‑linked products, with combined assets north of $800 billion, will be forced to add Nebius to their portfolios. That automated demand has already lit a fire under the shares. Over the past 30 days the stock has climbed roughly 31%, and it closed at €224.10 – only 8% below its all‑time high of €242.95 set on 2 June. The 50‑day moving average of €164.84 sits about 36% lower, underscoring how quickly this rally has moved.

Nebius is one of five companies joining the Nasdaq‑100 this quarter, alongside Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Rocket Lab and Teradyne. Among the cohort, its year‑to‑date gain of 165.5% leads the pack. That performance is not a fluke. The business is firing on all cylinders.

From Megawatts to Multi‑Billion‑Dollar Revenue Targets

The top‑line explosion is no one‑trick pony. Roughly $390 million of Q1 revenue came from the AI‑cloud segment, and the company ended the quarter with $9.3 billion in cash on hand. Management now targets an annualised revenue run rate of $7‑9 billion for the full year 2026, with total reported revenue expected in the range of $3‑3.4 billion and a full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin around 40%.

That growth is fuelled by massive capacity expansion. Nebius currently operates about 170 megawatts of active compute – ahead of an earlier 100‑MW goal – and plans to reach 1 GW by year‑end across 16 sites in the US and EMEA. The capex programme for 2026 alone is $22.5 billion. In the UK alone, three new London locations will soak up roughly $2.26 billion to deliver 65 MW by 2027. In Pennsylvania, the company is building what it calls an “AI factory” with a capacity of 1.2 GW.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

A multi‑year cloud‑services contract with Meta, reportedly worth around $27 billion, provides a heavyweight anchor for demand. And Nebius is positioning itself to be more than a GPU landlord: it will be among the first cloud providers to deploy NVIDIA’s new Vera‑Rubin NVL72 systems. The broader shift toward AI inference – expected to account for two‑thirds of compute demand this year – plays directly into its platform, which includes a software layer for building autonomous AI agents. The agentic AI market is projected to swell from roughly $7 billion in 2025 to $140‑200 billion by the early 2030s.

Insider Profit‑Taking Meets Analyst Upgrades

Even as the stock surges, one insider has taken some chips off the table. Director John Wilson IV Boynton sold 5,812 Class A shares on Monday at prices between roughly $246 and $262, netting about $1.47 million. He retains more than 428,000 shares directly, so the move looks more like partial profit‑taking than a vote of no confidence.

The analyst community remains bullish. Bank of America recently lifted its price target to $280, citing rising demand for specialised AI software stacks and infrastructure. The consensus rating on the stock stands at “Moderate Buy.”

A Volatile Ride With a Hard Catalyst Ahead

None of this comes without risk. The annualised volatility on Nebius shares is 111% – investors should expect sharp swings in both directions. The relative strength index sits at 63.4, elevated but not yet in extreme territory. After a 410% gain over the past 12 months, there is little room for disappointment. On 22 June, index funds will buy regardless of valuation. After that, the company simply has to deliver on its outsized promises.

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