D-Wave Quantum has spent the past year assembling a far larger contract book than it has ever carried. Turning that paper into revenue — while hitting a technical deadline and keeping costs from outrunning sales — is now the central test for anyone weighing the stock.
The numbers from the company’s latest quarterly report, released this week, cut both ways. Remaining performance obligations, the RPO figure that tracks contracted work not yet recognized as revenue, stood at $38.3 million at the end of the third quarter of 2026. That is 1,221% above the year-earlier level. Of the total, 59% is expected to convert into revenue within twelve months, giving investors a concrete yardstick for the quarters ahead.
Bookings over the first nine months of 2026 reached $37.4 million, a gain of 611%. The catch sits in the most recent quarter: orders taken in the period fell 19% year on year to $1.9 million. A single large system sale has so far shaped the trajectory, so the question is whether demand broadens or stays dependent on one-off transactions.
A Gate-Model System Due Before the Year Is Out
On the technology side, D-Wave intends to complete a 17-qubit gate-model system by the end of 2026, with customer deliveries under discussion for 2027. The company puts pipeline growth since the close of the second quarter at more than 75%, evidence of rising interest in system purchases. Interest only becomes an investment case once it hardens into binding orders and then into recognized sales.
Management has guided toward higher revenue next year across systems as well as QCaaS, services and partner sales, though it has not published a numerical forecast. Wedbush, for its part, models revenue of $81.5 million in 2027 and $153.1 million in 2028 — a steep growth path that depends on executing system deliveries.
The balance sheet offers room to maneuver. D-Wave ended the quarter with cash and securities of $503.4 million, supplemented by agreed access to as much as $100 million in CHIPS funding. Those disbursements are tied to conditions and milestones, and the money would support development of the next generation of annealing and gate-model systems. If milestones slip, the associated payments slip with them.
Costs Climb Faster Than Sales
Third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $4.5 million. Operating expenses, by contrast, jumped 84% to $55.9 million, and the adjusted EBITDA loss came in at $37.7 million. The net loss was $48.2 million, or $0.13 per share — steeper than the $0.10 per-share loss analysts had expected, according to media reports.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?
Rosenblatt analyst John McPeake pointed to the timing of system revenue recognition and slower QCaaS growth, expecting partial revenue from one machine in the closing quarter rather than the three previously anticipated. The risk therefore runs along two tracks at once: when large system sales land, and how the other revenue streams develop.
Sentiment among analysts remains constructive but more cautious on valuation. Several firms trimmed their price targets yesterday while keeping buy ratings, according to media reports — long-term upside still visible, near-term expectations marked down.
What Has to Go Right
The bull case rests on a straightforward sequence: convert the $38.3 million in obligations into revenue on schedule, revive quarterly bookings, and demonstrate progress against development milestones that unlock further CHIPS tranches. Repeatable sales — rather than isolated large deliveries — would make the business more predictable and give technical advances visible financial weight.
The bear case writes itself from the recent order trend. Should the 19% quarterly decline persist, the renewal of the contract base weakens, and revenue growth alone will not be enough if losses stay this wide. Delayed customer acceptances combined with expenses still rising faster than sales would push any path to sustainable scale further out.
Two checkpoints sit closest on the calendar: proof of achieved development milestones and the funding tranches tied to them, and the gate-model system promised before the end of 2026. Commercially, the delivery to Florida Atlantic University slated for the fourth quarter of 2026 offers a concrete marker. Technical progress strengthens the case only when reliably realized revenue follows it.
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