Evonik has spent the past week shipping products and starting partnerships, yet the questions that actually move its share price remain untouched by any of it. Two new dental materials, a ruminant feed additive and a Japanese polyurethane recycling venture are all confirmed, operational steps. The reported takeover interest from BASF, and Evonik’s own reported US acquisition ambitions, are not.
That split in certainty is the frame investors are working with. On 20 October Evonik launched two VESTAKEEP PEEK grades, designated DC4760 and DC4780, aimed at long-term dental prostheses. A day earlier it introduced Lypron, a rumen-stable lysine solution that slots into its amino-acid balancing concept for ruminants. Neither launch is described as part of any transaction, and neither should be valued against the possible outcome of takeover talks.
Recycling added a third confirmed item. On 13 October Evonik, Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical began a joint initiative for polyurethane foam in Japan, targeting recycled polyols and amines for use in new polyurethane products. The reported status is the start of an initiative; recovering and reusing the materials remains a stated goal rather than a delivered result.
The bid that nobody has confirmed
Against that operational backdrop sit two far less settled stories. Bloomberg and dpa-AFX reported on Friday, citing insiders, that BASF had raised its offer to roughly EUR 24 per Evonik share. Evonik had rejected an initial non-binding proposal of EUR 22.15 as too low. Neither company has confirmed the increase, and Handelsblatt characterised the offer as all-cash with the outcome of talks still open.
BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth said on Thursday that the buyer would honour existing site agreements and rule out compulsory redundancies until 2032 — concessions designed to build acceptance. The decisive vote belongs to RAG-Stiftung, Evonik’s largest shareholder. No confirmed agreement exists.
Sell-side opinion on the potential acquirer has turned more cautious. Deutsche Bank Research downgraded BASF to Hold from Buy and cut its price target to EUR 53 from EUR 60, with analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte pointing to uncertainty and execution risk around the intended Evonik takeover, while conceding the deal could make strategic and financial sense over the long term. The call concerns BASF directly, but it sharpens the distinction Evonik holders need to hold onto: industrial logic is not the same thing as a bankable sale proceeds figure.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
mwb research struck a similar note, keeping BASF at Hold with a EUR 55 target. It flagged the offsetting forces at work — advantages in raw materials, purchasing and infrastructure set against heavier exposure to cost-intensive European sites — and noted that synergies have not been quantified. A large all-cash acquisition, in the analysts’ view, could weigh on BASF’s balance-sheet strength and future distributions, leaving open just how attractive the transaction looks once every cost is counted.
Evonik’s own shopping list complicates the maths
Meanwhile Evonik appears to be pursuing a strategic option of its own. Handelsblatt reported that the company has for some time been examining a larger US acquisition, focusing particularly on Ashland, with the review at an early stage and no deal assured. Evonik said it does not comment on market rumours as a matter of principle. Reuters reported that BASF considers such a move too risky.
Two competing visions of Evonik’s future therefore sit side by side. The prospective buyer is pitching integration into its own Verbund system; Evonik’s reported deliberations point toward a purchase of its own. A higher price per share does not settle that strategic question.
A November checkpoint
Evonik’s standalone performance still matters alongside the deal talk. Third-quarter figures are due on 3 November. Those are expectations, not reported results, but they can supply another reference point for valuing the company. Until a transaction is confirmed, shareholders are left weighing two questions at once: what Evonik is worth on its own, and on what terms a sale could actually be pushed through.
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