The arithmetic of Novo Nordisk’s share repurchase is straightforward: since 4 February, the Danish drugmaker has bought back 32,034,179 B-shares at an average price of 281.63 Danish kroner, spending roughly 9 billion kroner in the process. The programme is slated to expand to as much as 11.2 billion kroner by 1 February 2027. Management, in other words, is signalling that it considers its own equity cheap.
The market has yet to agree. At 39.09 euro, the stock has shed roughly five percent in a month, sits 11 percent lower since the start of the year and trades about 29 percent beneath its January peak of 54.86 euro. That gap between corporate confidence and investor scepticism sets the stage for the capital markets day in London on 21 September, where executives will face questions about how a company once defined by relentless growth intends to rebuild momentum.
A Pipeline Losing Its Diversification Promise
The most immediate problem emerged on 7 September, when Novo Nordisk pulled the plug on two more Phase 3 trials of Ziltivekimab in heart failure patients. HERMES and ATHENA were halted after an independent data monitoring committee concluded they were unlikely to deliver results meaningfully different from the ZEUS study, which had already failed in July by showing the drug did not reduce major cardiovascular events versus placebo.
That leaves only ARTEMIS, a Phase 3 trial testing Ziltivekimab in patients following a heart attack, with readouts not expected until the first half of 2027. The setback is significant for a company that had hoped cardiovascular disease — a multi-billion dollar market — would become a second growth engine beyond its metabolic franchise. Instead, the programme has narrowed to a single study with results more than a year and a half away.
Deutsche Bank has been vocal about the implications. The bank downgraded Novo Nordisk to Sell on 27 August and repeated that stance on 7 September, cutting its price target to 265 Danish kroner. Analysts cite a weaker growth profile for 2027, the Ziltivekimab failures and a substantial patent cliff risk later in the decade.
Where the Story Still Holds
Against that sombre backdrop, the company delivered a reminder that its core business retains vitality. The STEP-Young Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint: after 68 weeks, 40.4 percent of children aged six to under twelve treated with once-weekly semaglutide were no longer classified as obese, compared with zero percent on placebo. No new safety concerns emerged regarding growth or pubertal development. Full results are slated for presentation at the Obesity Society’s ObesityWeek conference in Washington in mid-November.
The paediatric data also expands the addressable patient population and provides regulatory ammunition for future label expansions. Meanwhile, the oral formulation of Wegovy continues to gain traction — approved in the US, UK, EU, UAE and Bahrain, with Chinese regulators having accepted the application for review. The German launch of the Wegovy tablet last Friday has so far been subdued, with the stock giving back around 2.4 percent since — an early indication of how critically the market is assessing each new growth avenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
The London Test
The tension between these two narratives — a deepening pipeline wound in cardiology versus a broadening semaglutide franchise — will define the tone at the capital markets day. Scheduled from 9:00 to 15:30 British time on 21 September, the event will see management present strategy, pipeline, operations and performance. Investors will listen closely for how executives frame the Ziltivekimab setback and whether they can articulate credible growth drivers beyond Wegovy and Ozempic.
The technical picture adds to the caution. The stock trades below its 50-day moving average of 41.54 euro, a sign that short-term momentum remains negative.
A bullish scenario hinges on China approving the Wegovy tablet, which would open an enormous market for oral obesity therapies where Novo Nordisk already positions itself as a pioneer. Combined with the paediatric data and the ongoing buyback — which had already exceeded 32 million B-shares by 4 September — a convincing presentation in London could lift the stock from its depressed levels.
The bearish case rests on pipeline concentration. With Ziltivekimab’s heart failure indications gone, growth increasingly depends on a single, albeit broad, semaglutide franchise. Should the China approval process stall or disappoint, the company lacks a second viable growth pillar. And if the capital markets day fails to offer a credible answer to the thinning pipeline, scepticism from institutional houses like Deutsche Bank is likely to find further fuel.
The next concrete milestones are clear: the London strategy session on 21 September, followed by nine-month results on 4 November. Between them, they should reveal whether Novo Nordisk can sustain its growth story on one pillar — or whether the buyback signal was, as some suspect, whistling in the dark.
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