The coming weeks will test whether SpaceX can juggle its most ambitious infrastructure build-out yet with a wave of newly tradable shares. The company is pouring capital into a massive new launch complex on the Gulf Coast, reconfiguring its Starlink deployment strategy around the Starship program, and preparing for a lock-up expiration that will put hundreds of millions of shares into investors’ hands — all while a crewed mission sits on the ground awaiting a repair.
A Gulf Coast Gamble of Unprecedented Scale
Reports from CNBC indicate SpaceX is planning to sink $100 billion into a new launch base in Louisiana, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and a first launch possible as early as 2029. The facility, to be called Starbase Louisiana, would feature five launch complexes, each equipped with twin launch pads, alongside propellant production infrastructure and employee housing. Once operational, it would become the largest launch site in the company’s portfolio, complementing existing operations in Texas and Florida.
The scale of the project signals a conviction that launch demand will keep climbing for years. But the company’s ambitions stretch well beyond rocketry. Elon Musk has stated that Google, Anthropic, and other firms are renting computing capacity from SpaceX, as power constraints squeeze the broader AI infrastructure market. That positioning — selling compute and energy access alongside launch services — represents a notable departure from the traditional space business model.
In a related move, SpaceX is building its own foundry in Bastrop, Texas, to manufacture gas turbine components. Musk suggests that bringing this production in-house could accelerate the development of natural gas turbines by as much as 18 months, a timeline advantage that could prove decisive in the race to secure power for AI data centers.
Starlink Shifts West as Florida Prepares for Starship
The operational picture is equally dynamic. SpaceX has decided to relocate all Falcon 9 Starlink launches previously conducted from Florida to the West Coast. Kiko Dontchev, vice president of launches, explained that future Starlink missions out of Florida will be flown exclusively on Starship. To support that transition, the company is constructing three launch towers in the state — one at Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A and two at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station’s Space Launch Complex 37 — with an eye toward the first Starship liftoff from Florida before year-end.
That target is looking increasingly plausible. Preparations for Flight 14, scheduled for September 15, are well along: both Ship 41 and Booster 21 have cleared engine tests, including a 33-engine static fire of the booster. The mission, which SpaceX filed with the FCC on September 1, would mark the first orbital attempt to deploy a new generation of more powerful Starlink satellites.
The West Coast, meanwhile, has been busy. A Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base on September 1 — the company’s 104th orbital launch of the year and its 79th Starlink mission in 2026. Just four days later, another 27 satellites went up on the 80th Starlink mission of the year. The secondary source notes that two Starlink missions launched from Vandenberg on the same day last week, each carrying 27 satellites, with both boosters recovering successfully on the droneship “Of Course I Still Love You.”
Dragon Setback and a Share Supply Test
Not everything is proceeding smoothly. On September 1, SpaceX and NASA were forced to postpone the Crew-13 launch after engineers detected a leak in the oxidizer system of the Dragon capsule’s propulsion unit during pre-launch checks. The four-person crew remains in quarantine awaiting a new target date, which NASA has yet to announce.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
For investors, a different kind of event looms. Media reports indicate that 319 million SpaceX shares will be released from lock-up restrictions on September 9, followed by an additional 59 million shares the next day. Over the course of the year, more than 2.62 billion shares are expected to become tradable — a supply increase that could test the stock’s resilience.
So far, the market has taken the news in stride. The shares recently traded at approximately €129, sitting about 9.3 percent above their 50-day moving average — a sign that the recent uptrend remains intact, even as the stock sits well below its 52-week high of €194.46. Analysts remain constructive: Oppenheimer raised its price target in early September from $250 to $280, while Bernstein held its target at $248, with both houses maintaining “Outperform” ratings.
A Balance Sheet Built for Heavy Lifting
The financial foundation for these ambitions emerged in the company’s first quarterly report since its June initial public offering. SpaceX generated $7.81 billion in revenue during the second quarter of 2026, comfortably ahead of the $6.93 billion analysts had expected, while narrowing its net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier.
Starlink subscriptions doubled year over year to 12 million, though average revenue per user dipped to $66 per month from $85, reflecting expansion into lower-priced markets. The enterprise and government segment proved particularly robust, growing 108 percent to $1.8 billion, including new Starshield contracts worth more than $6 billion. CFO Bret Johnsen has indicated the company is on track to reach an annualized recurring revenue run rate of $100 billion by year-end.
The spending side of the ledger is dominated by computing infrastructure. SpaceX invested $15.828 billion in AI infrastructure during the second quarter alone, up from just $749 million in the same period last year — representing 86 percent of the company’s total capital expenditures of $18.4 billion. Musk has told shareholders that the planned AI data centers will be equipped exclusively with Nvidia chips, with a goal of nearly ten gigawatts of computing capacity by the end of 2027. The two companies have also agreed to collaborate on “Space Compute” hardware, which would allow AI models to run directly on satellites.
The convergence of these threads — a historic capital commitment in Louisiana, a strategic pivot of launch operations, a grounded crew capsule, and a looming share supply — sets up a defining stretch for the company. The operational cadence remains relentless, but the market’s appetite for additional liquidity starting September 9 will be an equally important variable in the weeks ahead.
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