The arithmetic at OHB has rarely looked more compelling on paper. The Bremen-based space and defence group closed the first half of its fiscal year with a record order backlog of €3.304 billion, adjusted EBIT climbing 46 percent year-on-year, and management reaffirming guidance for roughly €1.4 billion in total output at a margin between 10.5 and 11 percent. Yet the share price has spent the past month moving in the opposite direction, shedding 21 percent in 30 days to close at €186.00 — a modest 0.3 percent gain on the day, but still a world away from the stock’s 50-day average of €241.52.
The disconnect is not hard to explain. OHB’s recent history has been defined by two forces pulling against each other: an operational story that keeps improving, and a capital structure that keeps changing beneath investors’ feet.
A Capital Raise That Left Retail Investors Cold
In mid-June, OHB completed a capital increase of up to 1,702,480 new shares at €300 apiece, generating gross proceeds of up to €510.7 million. The secondary article puts the net figure at roughly €484 million, with the bulk — €481.6 million — coming from a first tranche and a further €2.3 million from a second. What stands out is how retail investors responded: they subscribed to just 7,635 of the 97,092 shares offered to them, allowing rights for 89,457 new shares to expire worthless.
Institutional investors, by contrast, were willing to step up. So was private equity firm KKR, which used the window to sell down a substantial portion of its roughly 29 percent stake through its Orchid Lux vehicle, in a placement worth around €900 million. The free float was expected to rise from a historically thin 6 percent to as much as 26 percent. Main shareholder Familie Fuchs declined to exercise its subscription rights.
The message from the retail subscription numbers was clear enough: small investors saw dilution where institutions saw an opportunity. That scepticism has coloured the market’s response to everything OHB has done since.
A Billion-Euro Win That Barely Moved the Needle
Take the company’s most recent headline achievement. Handelsblatt reported just over a week ago that satellite operator SES had awarded OHB a contract worth nearly €1 billion to build 18 satellite platforms for IRIS², Europe’s sovereign communication constellation. The first satellites are slated for launch in 2029, with data transmission beginning in 2030. The share price response: a gain of 1.6 percent. No euphoria, no sustained rally — just a shrug.
The pattern repeated with OHB’s promotion to the SDAX in August, replacing Klöckner & Co. Since the index inclusion, the stock has lost roughly 28 percent. A move into the TecDAX at the next regular index review in September would raise the company’s visibility further, but few expect it to resolve the underlying tension between the order book and the capital structure.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?
Rocket Factory Augsburg Adds to the Gloom
Operationally, the picture is more nuanced. OHB’s first-half total output rose 11 percent to €627.9 million from €563.5 million a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA up 31 percent to €60.4 million. In late July, subsidiary OHB Italia secured a contract for the second generation of the PRISMA mission, scheduled for launch by the end of 2031.
But the group’s 65 percent-owned rocket subsidiary, Rocket Factory Augsburg, has become a persistent source of disappointment. The maiden flight of the RFA ONE rocket has been delayed once again, this time due to tank problems. The vehicle had to be removed from the launch pad for inspection, forcing the cancellation of a five-week launch window in August and September. For investors who had pinned hopes on a symbolic first launch as a catalyst, it was a setback — even if rocketry represents only a segment of OHB’s broader space business.
The Valuation Debate Intensifies
Since early September, media reports have described sustained selling pressure as the hype around the capital increase and KKR’s subsequent placement faded. The debate now centres on whether the record backlog and anticipated earnings jumps from 2027 justify the current valuation, or whether dilution and a price-to-earnings ratio some consider stretched point to further downside.
The range of opinions is unusually wide. Some analysts see fair value at €270 to €300; others warn of a decline to €70. The stock’s year-to-date performance — still up 59 percent — suggests the recent slide is more a correction after a steep rally than a fundamental loss of confidence in the business.
For now, OHB presents investors with a puzzle: a growing order book and confirmed annual targets on one side; fresh dilution, a large overhang from the KKR sale, and rocket programme delays on the other. Whether the backlog translates into the earnings growth expected for 2027 will likely determine which force wins out in the coming weeks.
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