The Danish pharma giant is living two lives at once. On one side, its oral Wegovy pill is setting fresh prescription records in the United States and inching closer to the Chinese market. On the other, a failed late-stage cardiovascular trial has prompted at least one major bank to wave the sell flag. The stock, meanwhile, is doing what any reasonable observer might expect: hovering in a state of suspended animation between operational strength and structural doubt.
The Prescription Data Tells a Straightforward Story
For the week ending September 4, US prescriptions of the Wegovy pill reached roughly 181,000 — a 3 percent gain and another all-time high. Eli Lilly’s competing oral product, Foundayo, managed 44,000 prescriptions in the same window, an 8 percent increase. Yes, Lilly is growing at a faster clip percentage-wise, but Novo Nordisk’s absolute base is more than four times larger and still expanding. Since the pill’s US debut in January, cumulative prescriptions have surpassed 5 million.
That scale matters. This is not a niche product finding early adopters; it is a mass-market therapy with genuine traction. And the company is not stopping at American pharmacy counters. Early September brought confirmation that Chinese regulators have accepted NovoWei® — the oral semaglutide tablet — for review. China is widely viewed as one of the most significant growth engines for obesity treatments globally, and the filing represents a strategic piece the market’s current skepticism may be underpricing.
Why the Bears Aren’t Backing Down
The skepticism, it must be said, has legitimate roots. Late August saw Deutsche Bank downgrade the stock to Sell, trimming its price target to 265 Danish kroner. Analyst Emmanuel Papadakis pointed to a concrete failure: Ziltivekimab, a cardiovascular candidate in late-stage development, failed to reduce the risk of heart attack or stroke in a major study. That is a tangible pipeline setback, not a theoretical concern.
Berenberg had already moved two weeks earlier, abandoning its Buy rating in mid-August and cutting its target to 47 US dollars. The house argued that the thesis of a positive surprise from the Wegovy pill in the first half was already priced in, and that competition in the oral obesity space would intensify in the second half of the year. Two banks, two distinct worries, one shared conclusion: the investment narrative has become considerably more complicated than it appeared twelve months ago.
The Operational Reality Cuts Both Ways
Yet the narrative of a company in decline does not quite square with the numbers on the page. Second-quarter results showed adjusted revenue climbing 7 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, with adjusted operating profit up 11 percent. Management responded by lifting full-year guidance — the earlier warning of a possible 6 percent decline was revised to a range of 0 to minus 6 percent for adjusted revenue growth. A modest improvement at the lower end, but an improvement nonetheless.
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JPMorgan took note, raising its price target to 275 kroner while holding at Neutral. The rationale: less generic erosion for Ozempic than feared, more favorable gross margins in the US, and stronger Wegovy demand outside America. The counterweight: softer expectations for the oral Wegovy version stateside, where launch momentum appears to be cooling.
A Stock Caught Between Two Timelines
Friday’s close saw the shares at 40.09 euros, down 1.8 percent on the day. Over the week, however, the stock is up 1.8 percent; over the month, 3.5 percent. The recovery of recent weeks remains intact, however fragile it looks. Year-to-date, the shares are still down 8.9 percent, and over twelve months the deficit widens to 17 percent.
The distance from the 52-week high of 54.86 euros stands at a considerable 27 percent, while the stock has climbed roughly a third off its yearly low of 30.25 euros. That split — solid short-term operations against persistent long-term structural worries — is almost perfectly mirrored in the chart.
Management has also reshuffled its research leadership, a signal that pipeline concerns are being taken seriously internally. Two dates now loom for investors: the Capital Markets Day in London on September 21, and the nine-month results due November 4. Both should reveal whether the operational momentum visible in prescription data can be translated into credible medium-term targets — or whether the bears, with their patent-cliff scenarios and pipeline anxieties, have the more accurate read on where this story is heading.
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