The first Wegovy tablet has reached European pharmacy shelves, and Novo Nordisk is betting that a simpler delivery format can help reverse a narrative that has turned increasingly skeptical. The oral version of the blockbuster weight-loss drug launched in Germany this week at retail prices between €170 and €280 depending on dosage — the first EU market for the pill, which the company hopes will lower the barrier to entry for patients who shy away from injection pens.
The German rollout is one prong of a two-continent strategy. China’s drug regulator accepted the oral Wegovy marketing application just over a week ago, opening the door to a market with potentially enormous demand, though the timeline for approval remains uncertain. Novo Nordisk has declined to comment on possible regulatory deadlines, a reminder of the patience required in a sector where study readouts, agency decisions and copycat competition can upend expectations at any moment.
A Split Verdict on the Copenhagen Giant
The strategic push comes at a delicate moment for the Danish pharmaceutical heavyweight. Deutsche Bank cut its rating on the stock to Sell in late August, trimming the price target by 9 percent to DKK 265 and triggering a drop of more than 3 percent in Copenhagen on the day of the downgrade. Analyst Emmanuel Papadakis argued that the late-stage candidate Ziltivekimab no longer supports the growth story after a study failed to show reductions in heart attack or stroke risk, and suggested that expanded US Medicare coverage for obesity drugs would offer only limited additional revenue.
JPMorgan, by contrast, raised its price target to DKK 275 in early August while keeping a Neutral stance, arguing that generic erosion of Ozempic would prove less severe than feared. Two respected houses, two nearly opposite readings within weeks — a measure of just how divided expert opinion has become on this company’s trajectory.
The second-quarter numbers themselves offered some comfort. Adjusted sales rose 7 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, with adjusted operating profit up 11 percent. Management lifted its full-year guidance — from a range of minus 4 to minus 12 percent to between 0 and minus 6 percent for both revenue and operating profit on a constant-exchange-rate basis. An improvement, certainly, but still a forecast with a minus sign attached.
Capital Returns Meet Structural Doubts
Novo has also been returning cash to shareholders in size. The first half saw DKK 41.2 billion distributed through dividends and buybacks, and the ongoing DKK 15 billion repurchase program — launched in early February — had accumulated roughly 31 million B-shares at an average price of DKK 281.08 by the end of August. Since the buyback began, the share price has barely moved, suggesting investors appreciate the capital discipline even if it does little to address the structural challenge of intensifying competition.
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That competition is the crux of the bear case. Eli Lilly is widely seen as the primary beneficiary of any market share erosion in the obesity space, and Novo’s pipeline has stumbled: the new Wegovy pill narrowly missed expectations, while CagriSema suffered a clinical setback. The company’s early guidance upgrade — unusual in its timing — did little to shift investor focus from these weaknesses.
The stock currently trades around €40.80, roughly a quarter below its January 52-week high but more than a third above its March trough. That range captures the moment well: Novo is neither written off nor restored to former glory, but caught in a transition whose outcome remains genuinely open.
A Pivotal September Date
All eyes now turn to September 21, when Novo Nordisk hosts its Capital Markets Day in London. Management is expected to present new strategic targets, and the event will test whether the company can convince doubters that a return to meaningful growth is realistic by 2027 — a difficult pitch given the Ziltivekimab setback, patent expiry risks and the growing GLP-1 competitive landscape.
Until then, the oral Wegovy tablet serves as the most tangible symbol of how Novo is trying to combine its traditional strengths — market access, pricing power, global reach — to compete in the fiercest competitive environment in its history. The pill is easier to prescribe, store and take than an injection pen, and the German launch represents an attempt to lower the access barrier to its own blockbuster franchise. Whether that gambit can shift the broader narrative around the stock is another matter entirely — one that the London event may go a long way toward answering.
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