The tungsten market is quietly splitting into two distinct spheres — and Almonty Industries finds itself squarely on the western side of that divide. A weekend newsletter from management laid out the widening gap between Chinese and non-Chinese supply channels, just as Jefferies stepped in with a buy recommendation that validates the recent surge in the company’s share price.
A Month of Momentum, Followed by Measured Consolidation
Shares in the Toronto-born, Nasdaq-listed miner have climbed more than 40 percent over the past month, propelled by Washington’s export restrictions on tungsten scrap and Beijing’s tightening grip on its own outbound shipments. The twin constraints have sharpened demand for independent producers operating beyond China’s borders — a category where Almonty holds rare status.
Jefferies’ endorsement carries particular weight given how far the equity has already travelled. The stock now trades at €15.31, roughly 26 percent below the 52-week high of €20.61 touched in April. That gap suggests the rally has yet to reach frothy territory, even as annualized volatility of 86 percent underscores the potential for sharp swings in either direction.
The most recent session told a similar story of digestion rather than distribution: Wednesday’s close came in at €15.26, down 5.8 percent on the week, though the shares have still more than quadrupled over the trailing twelve months.
Sangdong Delivers the Numbers Behind the Narrative
The fundamental case rests on operational proof delivered in August, when Almonty reported second-quarter revenue of C$42.989 million — a 498 percent jump year over year. Net income swung from a loss of C$58.209 million in the prior-year quarter to a profit of C$181.797 million, while adjusted EBITDA climbed from negative C$4.8 million to C$17.6 million.
The inflection point came in June, when the Sangdong mine in South Korea began processing stockpiled ore through its newly commissioned concentrator, producing saleable tungsten concentrate for the first time. Management’s Sunday newsletter framed that operational milestone within a broader structural story: as Chinese export policy tightens and US restrictions on scrap reduce available supply outside China, Almonty’s pricing power should benefit directly.
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Capital Position Strengthens Across Multiple Fronts
The balance sheet has been reinforced from several directions. In June, the company placed an oversubscribed US$800 million bond issue carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031. Cash stood at C$1.2 billion at the end of the second quarter, and a KfW term loan of €14.662 million was repaid in full in mid-July.
Commercial terms have also improved. A long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders LLC was renegotiated in July, extending the contract by six years, increasing contracted volumes by 40 percent, and securing roughly 6.3 percent better pricing. Since that announcement, the shares have added 8.8 percent.
Shareholder returns entered the picture in August with a US$300 million buyback program covering up to 14.4 million common shares, launched about two weeks ago. The repurchase plan has coincided with an 8.0 percent gain in the stock.
A Leaner Listing Structure
The corporate footprint is narrowing by design. Almonty completed its delisting from the Australian Securities Exchange yesterday, following a voluntary withdrawal from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the end of July. Trading now concentrates on the Nasdaq under the ticker ALM and on the Frankfurt exchange — a two-market structure intended to consolidate liquidity while the company scales its South Korean operations.
Whether the current trajectory persists hinges on how far the western tungsten market continues to decouple from its Chinese counterpart. For now, the combination of a tightening supply picture, a fortified balance sheet, and a freshly validated equity story gives investors a clearer lens through which to judge the durability of the move.
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