Silver’s latest advance has carried the metal to the doorstep of a level that chartists have been watching for weeks. Friday’s settlement at $69.01 per ounce, up 1.3% on the session, extends the seven-day gain to 6.5% and a 30-day advance of 15% — a run that has brought the metal squarely into a zone where the next directional move could be decided.
The $70 Threshold That Could Unlock the Next Leg
Market technicians identify the central resistance band between $69.98 and $70.02. A sustained breakout above that ceiling would open the path toward subsequent targets at $72.50, $75, and eventually $76.95. With spot prices now hovering precisely at that boundary, the coming sessions amount to a high-stakes test of whether the rally has enough momentum to push through.
The forecasting landscape among major banks is unusually fractured. Citi projects $90 within six to twelve months, while J.P. Morgan sees just $63 by the fourth quarter of 2026. In between, Commerzbank targets $67 by year-end, UBS calls for $80, and Bank of America sees $75 in the near term while not ruling out a scenario reaching $100. The median forecast among analysts polled by Reuters for 2026 stands at $71.90.
A Supply Deficit of Historic Proportions
Beneath the technical action lies a fundamental picture that has grown increasingly tight. The Silver Institute’s updated market report puts the cumulative supply deficit for 2020 through 2026 at 1.323 billion ounces, driven by record photovoltaic demand and shrinking mine output. For 2026 alone, a deficit of 46.3 million ounces is projected, even as recycling volumes are expected to climb above 200 million ounces. Industrial demand reached 657.4 million ounces in 2025.
One notable wrinkle: solar demand for 2026 is forecast to fall to 151 million ounces, a 19% decline year-over-year — a counterpoint to the prevailing narrative of an insatiable structural appetite from the photovoltaic sector.
Physical Markets Tell a Different Story
The tightness is most visible in Asia. In Shanghai, silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange traded at $78.27 per ounce — a premium of roughly 12.68% over the Western spot price of $69.47. Such a spread signals persistent physical scarcity and robust industrial buying in the Chinese market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
India, meanwhile, has re-entered the market after a six-month import hiatus. August saw 89.81 tonnes of silver imported through the India International Bullion Exchange in Gujarat. Metals Focus reports licenses have already been issued for approximately 400 tonnes in total, with media reports suggesting much of the pent-up demand could be delivered in the coming weeks. The Silver Institute additionally expects global demand for silver coins and bars to rise about 7% this year.
Miners and Exchanges Adapt to the New Reality
The supply side is responding in kind. Silvercorp Metals received approval on August 4 from the Guangdong provincial authority to reclassify its GC mine from a lead-zinc operation to a silver mine — a move underscoring the metal’s growing strategic importance to operators. Integra Resources, in its quarterly report for the DeLamar project, pegged the after-tax net present value at current spot prices of $65 per ounce silver and $4,500 per ounce gold at $1.9 billion.
Even the exchange infrastructure is adjusting. CME Group launched a new cash-settled 100-ounce silver futures contract in early August, aimed at retail investors, in response to heightened volatility in the market.
Monetary Tailwinds Add Fuel
The current price strength owes much to monetary policy dynamics. The US Treasury has doubled its buyback volume for long-dated government bonds with maturities between ten and thirty years to at least $4 billion per transaction, on top of $14 billion in the current quarter. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is currently priced at 36%. The combination of rising liquidity and the prospect of lower rates is a classic tailwind for yield-free assets like precious metals.
Room Still to Run
Technically, silver now trades 13% above its 50-day moving average of $60.81, underscoring the near-term upward momentum. Yet the metal remains 43% below its 52-week high of $121.78, reached in late January — a reminder that despite the recent rally, substantial ground remains to be recovered before approaching previous peaks.
The wide dispersion of price targets, ranging from $63 to $100, reflects how differently major houses weigh the interplay of monetary stimulus, physical supply deficits, and fluctuating industrial demand. For investors, the immediate question is whether the resistance near $70 yields in the days ahead or temporarily halts the advance.
Ad
Silber Preis Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Silber Preis Analysis from August 23 delivers the answer:
The latest Silber Preis figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Silber Preis investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from August 23.
Silber Preis: Buy or sell? Read more here...
