The numbers Nvidia reports on Wednesday will be scrutinized for more than just revenue and earnings. For the first time in the company’s meteoric rise, investors are asking a harder question: who is actually paying for all this AI infrastructure — and what happens if the bill comes due?
The answer, increasingly, is Nvidia itself.
On Monday, the company agreed to back a guarantee of up to $105 billion so that OpenAI can lease a massive data center campus in Ohio being developed by SoftBank’s SB Energy. Nvidia is also investing $1.5 billion directly into SB Energy to support the buildout. The facility, known as the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus, will deliver an initial 4.25 gigawatts of computing capacity with an option for an additional 3.75 gigawatts, with power coming online in phases starting in 2028.
What makes the deal notable is how the number shrank before it was finalized. According to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia originally contemplated guaranteeing roughly $250 billion, trimmed that to “less than $120 billion” in mid-August, and ultimately settled on $105 billion. A company that halves its own guarantee within a matter of weeks is, by any measure, testing its own limits.
The Vendor as Lender
The arrangement casts Nvidia in a dual role that is becoming harder to ignore: chipmaker and financier of the very infrastructure that generates demand for its chips. It’s not an accusation of wrongdoing — but it is a circular dynamic that becomes more visible with every wobble in the AI trade.
Nvidia has been hedging its exposure. On August 10, it announced a partnership with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to create independent financing platforms aimed at mobilizing more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. That can be read as a savvy move — bringing professional capital partners on board rather than shouldering risk alone. It can equally be read as an admission that the company’s own guarantees had grown too large to carry by itself.
The pattern extends beyond Ohio. Late last month, Nvidia announced a long-term partnership with Safe Superintelligence, investing its own capital in the venture. Bloomberg pegged that stake at $5 billion. For Safe Superintelligence, the deal provides access to Nvidia’s forthcoming Vera Rubin platform, which the company says will multiply its available computing capacity.
Regulatory Clouds and a Possible Acquisition
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Nvidia has held preliminary talks with South Korean chip designer Rebellions — potentially about a technology partnership, potentially about a full acquisition. CEO Jensen Huang is said to have met with Rebellions co-founder Sunghyun Park in Santa Clara this week.
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Any deal would draw scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice, given Nvidia’s market dominance, as well as from South Korean regulators — particularly since the South Korean state itself holds a financial stake in Rebellions. The mere existence of the talks suggests Nvidia wants to keep its options open on the supply side in case its dominance faces tighter regulatory constraints.
Analysts Position Ahead of the Print
The analyst community, for its part, remains bullish. BMO Capital initiated coverage on Thursday with an “Outperform” rating and a $340 price target, citing Nvidia’s position as the leading provider of complete AI systems built on a fully integrated technology stack. Earlier in the week, GF Securities raised its target from $308 to $345, with analyst Jeff Pu keeping a “Buy” rating and pointing to demand for the Vera Rubin platform.
Consensus estimates call for earnings per share of $2.13 on revenue of $93.63 billion for the fiscal second quarter, which ended July 26. That would follow a record first quarter that saw revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with the data center business growing 92% to $75.2 billion. Nvidia has guided to roughly $91 billion in revenue for the quarter.
Shareholder Returns and Insider Selling
The company continues to reward shareholders generously. In May, the board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share and authorized an additional $80 billion buyback program with no expiration date, targeting a return of half of free cash flow to shareholders by 2026.
Yet insider activity tells a more cautious story. Over the past six months, board member Mark Stevens sold more than two million shares, while CFO Colette Kress and sales chief Ajay Puri also trimmed their positions. Such sales are routine among executives at major tech companies and don’t by themselves signal anything about business fundamentals — but they arrive at a moment when the stock is already under pressure.
The shares closed Friday at €183.78, down 1.1% on the day and 5.6% on the week. That leaves the stock 9.2% below its 52-week high of €202.50, reached on May 14, though it remains 9.1% above its 200-day moving average — the long-term trend is intact even as short-term nerves fray. The relative strength index of 48.1 points to neutral sentiment, suggesting investors are waiting for Wednesday’s numbers before committing. Year to date, the stock is still up 15%.
The tension is straightforward: Nvidia’s operating strength is real, but the company is increasingly underwriting the demand that feeds it. The reduction of the OpenAI guarantee from a possible $250 billion to $105 billion in a matter of weeks shows that even Nvidia is probing the boundaries of its own financing model. Wednesday’s report will show whether the core business can continue to support the structure — or whether questions about the sustainability of self-generated demand grow louder.
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