The numbers land before US markets open on Monday, and for XPeng, the stakes could hardly be higher. The Chinese electric-vehicle maker’s shares are hovering around €10.32, barely 3.3 percent above the 52-week low of €9.99 touched in August, with the stock down 43 percent since the start of the year and roughly 48 percent lower over the past twelve months. The distance from the 200-day moving average — about 30 percent — underscores that this is no passing dip but a sustained downtrend that Monday’s second-quarter earnings will either validate or begin to reverse.
Growth and losses: the central tension
The consensus picture for the April-to-June period captures the dilemma neatly. Analysts expect revenue of $2.83 billion, a 12.3 percent improvement year over year, alongside a per-share loss of 6 cents — a 45 percent narrowing from the prior year’s deficit. In other words, XPeng is selling more cars but still burning capital to do it. That tension sits at the heart of the bearish case, even as the operational numbers tell a more flattering story.
Delivery data for the quarter showed sequential momentum that outpaced rivals. XPeng’s second-quarter volume is projected to have climbed 65 percent from the first quarter, compared with 29 percent for NIO and just 3.3 percent for Li Auto. Yet the year-over-year picture is less forgiving: China EV tracking data points to total sales down 16 percent annually, a reminder that quarterly comparisons can flatter. July deliveries came to 38,027 vehicles, up 4 percent from a year earlier but down from June’s 40,126, bringing cumulative global deliveries past the 1.2 million mark. The second quarter as a whole produced 103,295 deliveries.
Margin momentum becomes the swing factor
The market’s immediate focus, however, is not volume but profitability. In the first quarter, XPeng’s gross margin reached 20.6 percent, up 5.0 percentage points year over year, while vehicle margin climbed to 12.1 percent, a 1.6-point improvement. The critical question for Monday’s report: can those margins keep expanding even as delivery growth cools? If the trend holds despite July’s sequential decline, it bolsters the argument that XPeng is approaching sustainable profitability. If margins stall alongside softer volumes, the bearish narrative gains real traction.
The first-quarter results also illustrate the pressure the company has been under. Revenue came in at RMB 13.03 billion, or $1.89 billion, down 17.6 percent year over year and 41.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2025. First-quarter deliveries fell 33.3 percent from the 94,008 vehicles delivered in the corresponding period a year earlier.
Analysts split, valuation questions linger
The analyst community is far from unified. Barchart currently rates the stock a clear sell, with a price target of $12.89 — implying only modest upside from recent levels. The broader Wall Street consensus, by contrast, is a “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $21.59 to $22.08, suggesting potential upside of roughly 83 percent from the current share price. That divergence between short-term technical models and longer-term fundamental views reflects genuine uncertainty about the company’s trajectory.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?
Valuation adds another wrinkle. XPeng trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.02, higher than both NIO and Li Auto, which sit below 1. That premium looks awkward given the stock’s months-long slide — the market appears to be pricing in growth advantages while simultaneously punishing the shares. Technical indicators offer little clarity: the stock sits 7.4 percent below its 50-day average, with an RSI around 40.7 to 42, signaling neither acute oversold conditions nor any convincing turnaround.
Global expansion and the legal win
Away from the income statement, XPeng has been busy on the international front. On July 16, the company hosted its Brand Day in Munich, unveiling the L03 model for global markets, with a rollout planned across 65 countries and regions this year. Australia features prominently in the strategy, with five entirely new models slated for the second half of 2026. The company also plans to take its self-developed NGP driver-assistance system, built on its in-house VLA-2.0 model, international starting in 2027.
There was also a legal development worth noting. An Australian federal court dismissed a lawsuit from former distribution partner TrueEV, scrapping a planned October trial. TrueEV, which had introduced the brand to Australia in 2024 and claimed investments of more than $60 million, failed to post a required security bond of $1.26 million. XPeng had ended the exclusive arrangement at the start of the year, restructuring the Australian market through its wholly owned subsidiary XPeng ANZ, which now offers six models. The ruling removes a distraction as the company tightens control over key overseas markets.
Closer to home, XPeng continues refreshing its lineup, most recently unveiling the G9L SUV across 119 locations in China at an entry price of roughly $38,530.
What Monday will settle
With 30-day annualized volatility running at 38 percent, sharp moves in either direction are possible once the figures are out. The market will be listening for two things above all: whether margins continued their first-quarter trajectory, and what management signals about third-quarter order flow and cash flow. A repeat of the margin improvement could let investors frame the softer delivery growth as a deliberate trade-off in favor of profitability, potentially lifting the stock toward its 50-day average near €11.14. A margin miss or cautious guidance for the coming quarter would make a test of the €9.99 August low increasingly likely — and could set the tone well into the fourth quarter.
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