The arithmetic facing Airbus in the coming months is unforgiving. With 418 aircraft handed over through the end of July — including 67 jets delivered to 39 customers during the month alone — the European planemaker must now clear 519 deliveries in the final five months of the year to hit its roughly 870-unit target. That translates into an average of more than 100 aircraft per month, a pace the company has never sustained.
The delivery tally so far represents a clear improvement on the 373 jets delivered at the same point last year, and it has helped Airbus build a 51-aircraft lead over rival Boeing. Yet the market’s reaction has been measured rather than euphoric. The shares changed hands at €213.00 on Thursday, a modest pullback, though the stock still shows a gain of roughly 7.8 percent year-to-date. By another measure, the equity sits at €215.50, just 2.6 percent below its 52-week high of €221.25 set back in January.
A First Half That Delivered
The foundation for the current optimism was laid in the half-year results published in late July. Revenue expanded 12 percent to €33.176 billion, while adjusted EBIT climbed 24 percent to €2.727 billion. Net profit rose to €2.243 billion from €1.525 billion a year earlier, lifting earnings per share to €2.84 from €1.93.
The commercial aircraft division did the heavy lifting, with 351 jets delivered in the first six months — a 15 percent increase over the 306 handed over in the same period of 2025. The A320 family accounted for the bulk of the volume at 271 units, supplemented by 44 A220s, 26 A350s and 10 A330s. A record second quarter, during which 237 aircraft left the factory floor, provided much of the momentum.
One soft spot stands out: free cash flow before customer financing came in at minus €1.2 billion for the half. Management nonetheless reaffirmed its full-year guidance of around 870 deliveries, €7.5 billion in adjusted EBIT and €4.5 billion in free cash flow before customer financing. The company has also set its sights further out, targeting adjusted EBIT of €12 billion to €13 billion by 2029, a projection that assumes an exchange rate of $1.22 to the euro.
Supply-Chain Friction and a Spanish Standoff
The path to the delivery target is strewn with operational obstacles. Persistent shortages of titanium and a scarcity of mechanics continue to constrain the production ramp-up, according to reports. That raises questions about the feasibility of Airbus’s ambition to lift A320 output to 70 to 75 aircraft per month by the end of 2027.
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Labour unrest has added another layer of complexity. Around 3,000 workers at the Getafe plant near Madrid walked off the job in July, a strike organized by the independent aviation union SIPA. The action delayed the inspections and technical checks required before aircraft can be handed over to customers. Workers are pressing for higher wage increases to offset inflation, while also resisting a reduction in remote-working days and the introduction of a new holiday system. The CCOO union has threatened open-ended strikes after September 7 should no agreement be reached.
Orders Keep Flowing
The order book, by contrast, continues to swell. July brought 204 gross orders, including 100 A320neo aircraft for lessor SMBC Aviation Capital and six additional A350-1000s confirmed by Riyadh Air. These commitments bolster long-term visibility, even if they do nothing to ease the immediate pressure of hitting this year’s delivery numbers.
The board has also authorized a €5 billion share buyback programme spanning three years, though its execution remains contingent on ongoing shareholder approval.
Wings of Tomorrow and the Freighter Timeline
On the technology front, Airbus has launched a three-year flight-test campaign using an A321neo demonstrator equipped with folding wingtips, part of the “Wing of Tomorrow” project showcased at the Farnborough International Airshow. The design is intended to allow next-generation aircraft with longer wingspans to operate at existing airport gates.
The A350F freighter programme is progressing on a revised schedule. Chief executive Guillaume Faury has held firm on a first flight this year, though the company has widened the window from a narrow third-quarter slot to the end of the year. Certification and first delivery are targeted for the end of 2027, with meaningful production volumes not expected until 2028.
One automated rating note from an analysis house downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold in mid-August and trimmed its price target, though the mechanical nature of that assessment limits its significance. What will ultimately steer the share price is simpler: whether the factory can deliver the second-half surge the guidance demands.
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