Almonty Industries is betting big that tungsten’s price surge is more than a passing cycle. The Toronto-headquartered producer, now effectively Nasdaq-centric in its trading, is running four major development projects simultaneously — a strategy that would strain most mid-tier miners but one that a freshly fortified balance sheet now makes possible.
The company’s war chest stands at roughly C$1.2 billion, a figure that ballooned after a heavily oversubscribed US$800 million convertible note offering closed on June 9, 2026. The instrument carries a 2.25% coupon and matures in 2031. Cash on hand climbed from US$268.4 million at the end of 2025 to US$1.23 billion by June 30 — a more than fourfold increase in six months that has given management the freedom to pursue an unusually aggressive build-out.
A Quarter That Rewrote the Scoreboard
The financial results for the second quarter of 2026, released on August 11, were nothing short of transformative. Revenue surged 498% year-over-year to US$43.0 million, up from C$7.19 million in the prior-year period and 69% above the preceding quarter. Net income swung to US$181.8 million, or US$0.62 per diluted share, against a loss of US$58.2 million a year earlier.
Those headline numbers, however, come with an asterisk. Roughly US$173.1 million of the profit stems from non-cash revaluation gains tied to derivatives and warrants associated with the convertible notes. Strip those out and the picture is more measured but still markedly improved: adjusted EBITDA reached US$17.6 million, reversing a negative US$4.8 million in the year-ago quarter, while GAAP earnings of US$0.10 per share matched the Zacks consensus estimate exactly.
The engine behind this operational turnaround is the European tungsten price, which has climbed to US$3,075 per metric ton unit — a staggering jump from US$453 a year earlier. That pricing environment, combined with long-term offtake agreements, is what makes Almonty’s parallel expansion strategy viable rather than reckless.
Four Projects, One Timeline
The centerpiece remains the Sangdong mine in South Korea’s Gangwon province, currently in its commissioning and ramp-up phase with a target processing capacity of roughly 640,000 tonnes per year. A Phase II expansion, already approved, could eventually lift that to 1.2 million tonnes annually. Adjacent to the mine, the company is also constructing a tungsten oxide processing facility.
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Beyond Korea, Almonty is advancing the Gentung project in Montana and expanding its Panasqueira mine in Portugal. The decision to pursue all four initiatives concurrently rather than sequentially is unusual for a company of this size — and it’s a choice CEO Lewis Black frames in explicitly geopolitical terms. In a recent interview, he described the goal as breaking China’s dominance over tungsten supply by developing strategic deposits across the US, South Korea, and Portugal simultaneously.
The offtake side reinforces that narrative. Almonty extended its supply agreement with US-based Global Tungsten & Powders, adding six years to the term, increasing volume by 40%, and securing a 6.3% price uplift. Such contractual commitments provide the revenue visibility needed to justify capital-intensive projects in the current cycle.
Delistings and Divergent Views
Amid the operational momentum, Almonty has been tidying up its listing structure. The company withdrew from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the close of trading on July 31, 2026, citing the significantly higher trading volumes now seen on the Nasdaq. The Australian Securities Exchange has likewise approved a voluntary delisting, with CDI trading ending August 28 and the formal removal effective September 1. The company pointed to comparatively low and declining volumes in Australia as the rationale. Going forward, trading will be concentrated on Nasdaq and Frankfurt.
The stock has responded positively but not euphorically to the recent developments. On August 12, shares climbed 8.2% to US$14.37, with the 52-week range spanning US$3.97 to US$24.41. The primary article reports an 8.3% gain, a marginal discrepancy likely reflecting different closing price snapshots. Either way, the shares remain roughly 22% below their three-month high — a gap that captures the market’s ambivalence.
That ambivalence is mirrored in the analyst community. Eleven Wall Street analysts have issued twelve-month price targets averaging US$16.29, implying roughly 22.7% upside from current levels. The average target has been revised upward by 12.4% over the past three months, with 84% of analysts rating the stock a buy. DA Davidson stands out as particularly bullish, raising its target from US$25 to US$33 in July following a virtual roadshow with CEO Lewis Black. Analyst Matt Summerville cited progress at Sangdong, potential collaboration with the US government, the strengthened balance sheet, and record tungsten prices as catalysts.
Algorithmic valuation models tell a different story. GuruFocus’s GF Value estimate pegs fair value at just US$1.34, implying roughly 972% overvaluation at current prices, with a middling GF Score of 53 out of 100. The chasm between quantitative screens and sell-side enthusiasm underscores just how contested the transition from mine developer to full-fledged tungsten producer remains — and how much of the company’s current valuation rests on the durability of today’s extraordinary pricing environment.
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