The arithmetic of SpaceX’s first months on the public market has been brutal: a stock that peaked at €194.46 in mid-June now changes hands at roughly half that price. Yet the company’s latest quarterly report, its first as a listed entity, tells a very different story — one of explosive growth, shrinking losses, and a satellite business that is quietly becoming a profit engine.
Those two realities collided on Wednesday, when shares slid 7.48 percent to €100.66, capping a volatile stretch that saw the equity touch a fresh 52-week low of €91.04 just two days earlier. The sell-off came precisely 24 hours before a lock-up period worth approximately $116 billion is set to expire, freeing employees and early backers to sell stakes they have held since the June initial public offering.
Starlink’s Momentum Masks a Hefty Investment Bill
The financials released Tuesday were hard to argue with. Revenue surged 92 percent year over year to $7.81 billion, comfortably ahead of the $6.93 billion consensus figure Wall Street had penciled in. Starlink, the satellite-internet division, contributed $4.3 billion of that total — up nearly two-thirds from a year earlier — while its operating profit reached $1.66 billion and subscriber numbers climbed from 10.3 million to 12 million.
The bottom line remains red, but the trend is encouraging. SpaceX posted a quarterly net loss of $541 million, a marked improvement over the $1 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year.
The catch is capital intensity. Investment spending ballooned to $18.4 billion during the quarter, with $15.8 billion of that funneled into data-center equipment for the company’s nascent AI infrastructure arm — a business that generated $2.56 billion in revenue in its own right. Management used the company’s first-ever earnings call to defend the outlay, framing SpaceX not merely as a rocket manufacturer but as a challenger to the hyperscalers in the infrastructure arena.
That dual narrative — record top-line growth alongside eye-watering spending — explains much of the market’s skittishness. Strong operational numbers are being weighed against a looming supply of shares and a management team that shows no appetite for slowing its investment pace.
A Pivotal Thursday
The lock-up expiry on August 6 is the immediate catalyst. Roughly $116 billion in shares become eligible for trading, and history suggests insider selling often follows such events. Yet Tuesday’s session offered a counter-narrative: the stock surged 9.46 percent to €108.80, with some market participants positioning for what one might call a clearing event — the notion that once the overhang dissipates, a more durable floor can form.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Technical indicators lend some support to that interpretation. The relative strength index sits at 46.2, having exited oversold territory without flashing overbought signals. Annualized 30-day volatility, meanwhile, hovers near 65 to 68 percent — a figure that captures just how frayed trader nerves have become around this name.
The stock currently trades about 10 percent above its 52-week low and roughly 44 to 50 percent beneath its June peak. The wide gap between those reference points underscores the whipsaw nature of the debutante’s first months on the exchange.
Starship’s Next Milestone and a Packed Launch Manifest
Beyond the numbers, CEO Elon Musk used the earnings call to outline what comes next for the Starship program. Following the successful completion of Flight 13 in July, the company is targeting Flight 14 for late August. The mission’s headline objective: catching the upper stage with the launch tower’s mechanical arms — a maneuver previously accomplished only with the Super Heavy booster. Success would mark a significant step toward rapid, full reusability.
Operational cadence shows no signs of slowing. Wednesday saw a Falcon 9 lift off from Cape Canaveral carrying BlueBird satellites for AST SpaceMobile, while Tuesday’s mission — Starlink 17-53 from Vandenberg Space Force Base — marked the 90th Falcon 9 flight of 2026. The company ended the quarter with roughly $100 billion in cash and securities, providing ample runway for its concurrent rocket, satellite, and AI initiatives.
Looking further ahead, NASA and SpaceX have completed management briefings for the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station, currently slated for a mid-September launch.
Whether the €100 level holds will largely depend on how many of the newly unlocked shares actually hit the market come Thursday. The fundamentals — revenue growth, a profitable Starlink division, and a narrowing loss — argue for patience. But in the near term, supply dynamics, not earnings power, are dictating the tape.
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