The quantum computing sector has a habit of turning single headlines into double-digit moves, and Monday was no exception. D-Wave Quantum jumped 11.17 percent on the German trading platform, closing at EUR 17.41, after two developments landed on the same day: a fresh collaboration with Nasdaq Verafin and a bullish initiation from Wedbush.
The stock’s weekly gain now stands at 12.43 percent. Yet even after that run, the shares remain 54.76 percent below the record high of EUR 38.48 set in October 2025 — a reminder of how far the company has fallen from its peak, and how much ground a single earnings report could reclaim or cede.
A Proof-of-Concept, Not a Contract
The Nasdaq Verafin deal is best understood as an exploratory exercise rather than a commercial win. The two companies plan to test whether D-Wave’s annealing technology can spot patterns of financial crime — fraud, account takeover schemes, and money laundering — across hundreds of simultaneous data inputs, including account behavior, transaction histories, and business relationships. Classic detection systems often miss these nested patterns, which is where D-Wave’s quantum-hybrid approach could theoretically add value.
CEO Alan Baratz framed the agreement as an application of the company’s technology to machine learning and further development projects. For Nasdaq Verafin, it’s a chance to position itself as a technologically forward player in financial services. For D-Wave, it opens a potential use case beyond its core markets of aviation and logistics.
But the project is explicitly a proof-of-concept study. It is not a recurring revenue contract, and it does not yet signal commercial maturity.
Wedbush Adds to the Bullish Chorus
The analyst update carried more weight. Matt Bryson of Wedbush initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a price target of USD 40 — roughly double the current trading level. That kind of target signals confidence in long-term commercialization, even if the financials are still in their infancy.
Bryson joins a series of bullish assessments that have accumulated over recent weeks. The average analyst price target now sits at EUR 32.17, implying upside of around 85 percent from current levels. That consensus figure is less a verdict on the present than a wager on whether the company’s commercial pipeline eventually scales into meaningful revenue.
The balance sheet gives the company room to pursue that bet. Consolidated cash and securities totaled USD 588.4 million as of the last report, up 93 percent from USD 304.3 million in the first quarter of 2025.
The Bull Case Has a Supporting Cast
D-Wave wasn’t the only quantum name moving Monday. Rigetti Computing gained 9 percent and Quantum Computing rose 8 percent, with no company-specific news to explain either move. The sector appeared to ride a wave of general risk appetite after a period of heavy selling. The broader market helped too: the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.52 percent after President Trump called off strikes on Iran, easing tensions in the Middle East.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?
The sector-wide rally adds context to D-Wave’s advance, but the company’s own story carries the weight. The Nasdaq Verafin pilot follows an expanded partnership with AT&T, where D-Wave’s annealing quantum computing cut processing time for a network optimization task by a factor of 240 — from roughly an hour to under 15 seconds. That proof point is the kind of concrete result that fuels the bull narrative.
The Bear Case: Bookings vs. Billings
The central question hanging over the stock is whether record order books can translate into recognized revenue. Thursday’s report will provide the next data point.
D-Wave releases second-quarter 2026 results on August 6 before US market open, followed by an investor conference call with Baratz and CFO John Markovich. The numbers will show whether bookings are converting into revenue, whether enterprise customers are scaling up usage, and whether the company is making genuine progress toward profitability.
The first quarter of 2026 offered a cautionary tale. D-Wave beat earnings expectations with a loss of USD 0.05 per share, but revenue of USD 2.9 million missed estimates by 30 percent and plunged 81 percent year over year. The stock fell 10.78 percent in a single day.
Analysts expect revenue to triple this year to USD 42 million, but losses are projected at USD 138 million for 2026, widening to USD 176 million in 2027. Even 2030 is expected to show red ink. The profitability gap remains wide, and even sympathetic analysts acknowledge it.
The stock currently trades 10.60 percent below its 50-day average of EUR 19.47, a sign that the market remains visibly split on the company’s trajectory. Annualized volatility of roughly 103 percent shows how violently sentiment can shift on a single data point.
What Thursday Could Bring
If more booking announcements and prominent partnerships arrive before the report, speculative buying interest could persist, potentially keeping the stock above its 100-day average of EUR 17.82. But if the quarterly report again shows revenue lagging far behind the bookings narrative — as it did last quarter — the shares could slide toward the 52-week low of EUR 11.12, last touched in March.
The gap between the consensus target of EUR 32.17 and the current price is not a judgment. It’s an open bet on whether the commercial momentum delivers on time. Thursday’s report will begin to answer that question.
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