The software giant’s stock has clawed back some of its losses after Germany’s Federal Cartel Office dropped a probe into its data-access practices — yet the path to a full recovery runs straight into a wall of technical resistance that could decide whether this is a genuine turnaround or just a dead-cat bounce.
A Regulatory Cloud Lifts
The cartel office’s decision to close its preliminary review, announced on July 31, 2026, removes a significant overhang for the Walldorf-based company. The probe stemmed from a complaint by competitor Celonis, which had accused SAP of abusing a dominant market position in data access. The closure came without a formal proceeding being initiated.
This wasn’t the only regulatory relief SAP secured this summer. On July 9, the European Commission wrapped up its own investigation into SAP’s maintenance policies for on-premise solutions, with SAP offering binding commitments to give customers more flexibility in maintenance and support choices. The two rulings arrived independently, but together they’ve helped shift the narrative around the stock.
The Numbers Behind the Rebound
The market’s response was swift. Shares closed Friday at €159.40, up 1.65 percent on the day, capping a week that saw the stock advance 13.45 percent. That rally has lifted the price roughly 25 percent above its 52-week low of €127.52, a trough touched just days earlier on July 23.
Still, the recovery remains incomplete. The stock sits 38.36 percent below its 52-week high of €258.60, reached in late July 2025, and is down 36.66 percent over the trailing twelve months. With a market capitalization of €180.56 billion, the stakes are considerable.
The immediate technical battleground is the 200-day moving average at €174.67, a level SAP currently trades 8.74 percent below. A decisive break above the €160 mark on a closing basis could open the path toward that line, while a slide back under the 50-day average at €144.49 would put the recent low back in play.
Cloud Momentum Meets Margin Caution
The fundamental picture is a study in contrasts. SAP’s second-quarter results, released July 23, showed cloud revenue climbing 22 percent to €6.22 billion, with current cloud backlog up 27 percent to €22.9 billion. Total revenue rose 9 percent to €9.88 billion.
But management simultaneously trimmed its 2026 guidance for adjusted operating profit growth, from a prior range of 14 to 18 percent down to 13 to 17 percent, citing dilution from recent acquisitions. That tension between robust cloud momentum and a more cautious profit outlook has dominated investor discussions since.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The technical indicators offer a similarly mixed read. The relative strength index sits at 64.1 — elevated but not yet in overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside. Yet the annualized 30-day volatility of 49.19 percent is unusually high for a DAX constituent, hinting that the recent rally may be driven more by short covering than by a broad fundamental revaluation.
Buybacks, Insider Buying, and a Split Analyst Camp
SAP launched the second tranche of its 2026 share buyback program on July 27, planning to repurchase up to €2.6 billion worth of shares by January 27, 2027. The same day, CEO Christian Klein purchased SAP shares worth approximately €325,219 — a move many investors read as a vote of confidence.
Wall Street’s reaction has been decidedly mixed. Barclays trimmed its price target from €255 to €220 on Tuesday while maintaining an “Overweight” rating, citing near-term uncertainty around cost trends. Jefferies reaffirmed its “Buy” rating with a €210 target the same day, following investor meetings with Klein about the company’s AI strategy reset. Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Berenberg have all recently reiterated buy recommendations with targets ranging from €164 to €215. The outlier remains DZ Bank, which cut its fair value from €130 to €120 on July 24 and holds a “Sell” rating.
The AI Race and What Comes Next
SAP has been quietly building out its artificial intelligence capabilities. On July 17, the company completed its acquisition of AI startup Prior Labs from its founders, pledging over €1 billion in investment over the next four years to develop the site as a “frontier AI lab.” Earlier, on July 6, SAP acquired data lakehouse provider Dremio to advance its “agentic AI” strategy.
The political backdrop could provide additional tailwinds. Digital Minister Karsten Wildberger renewed his call on August 1 for decisive action on a European high-performance AI model, a role SAP — as the continent’s largest software company — might plausibly fill. Yet international competitors like Anthropic with its “Mythos” model and China’s Moonshot AI with “Kimi K3” have already established formidable AI offerings that reach deep into software architectures.
Investors should also note a planned maintenance window from August 7 to 10, during which SAP production systems will have limited availability. The next quarterly results are scheduled for October 21.
For now, the €160 level serves as the immediate test. Hold above the 50-day moving average and the path toward €175 opens up; slip below it, and the year’s low at €127.52 comes back into view. The coming weeks will show whether SAP’s regulatory reprieve and cloud momentum can outweigh the margin concerns that have weighed on the stock all year.
Ad
SAP Stock: Buy or Sell?! New SAP Analysis from August 1 delivers the answer:
The latest SAP figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for SAP investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from August 1.
SAP: Buy or sell? Read more here...
