Palantir Technologies gave back all of Monday’s 5% advance in a single session on Tuesday, sliding 6.55% to close at €108.12. The reversal came as a broad sell-off swept through global technology and artificial intelligence stocks, with the damage originating in Asian semiconductor markets before cascading into US-listed names.
The turmoil began in Seoul, where Samsung tumbled more than 7% and SK Hynix cratered over 9%, dragging South Korea’s KOSPI index down 7.24%. That weakness quickly infected US tech equities, and richly valued AI software stocks like Palantir found themselves squarely in the crosshairs. The move underscores just how sensitive the stock remains to macro sentiment shifts — particularly with earnings just days away.
The Burry Factor Adds to the Pressure
Adding to the bearish undercurrent, noted short-seller Michael Burry has reportedly increased his bearish bets against Palantir ahead of the company’s upcoming quarterly report. Burry, who famously foresaw the 2008 financial crisis, has also expanded short positions against several major chip stocks and maintained his existing wager against Tesla. His thesis rests on valuation: even Palantir’s rapid revenue growth, he argues, does not justify the stock’s eye-watering multiple.
Burry’s skepticism stands in sharp contrast to Wall Street’s prevailing optimism. A consensus of 21 analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of €160.17 — implying roughly 38% upside from current levels. That gap between the bears and the bulls has created an unusually visible tug-of-war as the earnings date approaches.
The Numbers That Matter
Palantir is scheduled to report results in the first days of August. Analysts are modeling revenue of $1.81 billion and earnings per share of $0.28, a 115.4% jump from the $0.13 reported in the same quarter last year. The company’s free cash flow will also be under scrutiny: after generating $925 million in the first quarter, the bar has been set exceptionally high.
The options market is bracing for fireworks. Traders are pricing in a roughly 15% swing in either direction around the August 3 report, reflecting the binary nature of the event. Anything less than 85% revenue growth accompanied by a meaningful guidance upgrade could trigger a sharp sell-off, while a beat that accelerates the growth narrative could send the stock racing toward its 100-day or even 200-day moving average.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?
A Split Verdict on the Street
Oppenheimer reaffirmed its Outperform rating and $200 price target on July 27, arguing that revenue growth could surpass management’s 79% forecast and that another full-year guidance raise is possible. DA Davidson upgraded the stock to Buy on July 2 with a $175 target, citing Palantir’s expanded partnership with Nvidia to build sovereign AI models for US government agencies.
But not everyone is convinced. Citigroup trimmed its price target last week from $225 to $200, pointing to a contracting valuation multiple. Insider selling has also weighed on sentiment: Palantir’s chief technology officer sold roughly $24 million worth of shares, and another board member unloaded over $2 million in stock.
The Technical Picture
Tuesday’s decline pushed Palantir back below its 50-day moving average of €114.19, a level it had reclaimed just a day earlier. The stock remains nearly 40% below its all-time high of €179.98, set on November 3. Since the start of the year, the shares have lost 26.36%.
Still, there are glimmers of recovery. From its 2026 low of €93.30 in late June, the stock has bounced 24%. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 53.6, suggesting there is plenty of room to run before the stock becomes overbought. With annualized volatility of 53%, however, this remains a name for the stout-hearted.
The Asymmetric Bet
Palantir’s market capitalization of roughly €259 billion already prices in a great deal of future growth. The coming earnings report will determine whether the stock can break out of its months-long funk or whether the pattern from May repeats — when the company delivered 85% revenue growth and raised guidance, yet the stock failed to sustain its gains.
For now, the bulls have the weight of analyst consensus behind them, while the bears have valuation and history on their side. The next few days will reveal which camp has the stronger hand.
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