The numbers coming out of Veldhoven are nothing short of extraordinary. ASML now expects 2026 revenue between €43 billion and €45 billion, a dramatic upward revision from the prior range of €36 billion to €40 billion. The second quarter alone delivered €9.3 billion in sales and net profit of €2.9 billion, with earnings per share of €7.59 comfortably beating the analyst consensus of €6.90. System shipments rose 15 percent to 91 units.
Yet the stock barely blinked. After an initial 3.80 percent gain on Tuesday that lifted the shares to €1,584.00, the momentum stalled. The ADR-listed stock later slipped 1.36 percent to €1,562.40 in Amsterdam. On a twelve-month basis, the equity has still surged 69.55 percent — and an eye-watering 159.49 percent — but the past 30 days have seen a 7.53 percent pullback. At €590.36 billion in market capitalization, ASML trades 10.62 percent below its all-time high of €1,748.00 set on June 30, 2026.
The contradiction is plain: even exceptional results no longer satisfy a market that has already priced in near-perfection. Expectations have become the enemy of outperformance.
Memory Chips Rewrite the ASML Narrative
The engine behind this upgrade is not the logic-chip foundries that have long been ASML’s core constituency. It is memory. High-bandwidth memory, essential for AI accelerators, has pushed the memory segment to nearly half of all system sales. ASML forecasts a 75 percent revenue increase in this category for 2026 alone. SK Hynix and Samsung have each pledged investments exceeding $2 billion over the coming decade, signaling a structural build-out rather than a cyclical uptick.
This is no ordinary replacement cycle. It represents a fundamental reconstruction of global data-center infrastructure. The third-quarter guidance of €11 billion to €12 billion in revenue — a 53 percent year-on-year jump — underscores the velocity of that transformation.
Capacity Constraints and the €20,000 Retention Bet
The bottleneck is no longer demand; it is production. ASML plans to boost manufacturing capacity for low-NA EUV systems by 30 percent by 2027, with an option for another 30 percent increase in 2028. DUV immersion systems will see a similar expansion. The company is betting that it can scale physical output fast enough to keep pace with an AI boom that shows no signs of fatigue.
To secure the specialized talent required to build the world’s most complex machines, ASML has deployed a blunt instrument: a €20,000 retention bonus for employees who remain through 2030. The message is unmistakable — this is a multi-year, generation-defining ramp, and the company cannot afford to lose the engineers who make it possible.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Intel Validates High-NA While Geopolitics Cloud the Horizon
On the technology front, Intel has already deployed ASML’s High-NA EUV systems for volume production of its Panther Lake processors, a validation that strengthens ASML’s monopoly narrative. The Albany NanoTech facility in New York recently received initial components of a High-NA system as part of a multibillion-dollar state investment initiative.
But the political headwinds are intensifying. U.S. Commerce Secretary has suggested that an advanced EUV system may have reached China — a claim ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet flatly denied, insisting that every machine is tracked without gaps. Washington is simultaneously exploring tougher sanctions and potential bans on DUV shipments to China, a market that currently accounts for roughly 20 percent of ASML’s revenue. A bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress would prohibit all DUV deliveries to China outright.
China, for its part, is reportedly considering its own export controls on domestic AI and semiconductor technology to protect strategic national assets. The U.S. has also invested $150 million in xLight, a startup seeking to challenge ASML’s EUV monopoly, while investor Peter Thiel supports another rival through Substrate.
Analyst Targets Versus Market Reality
Despite the stock’s recent drift, several major houses have raised their price targets. Bank of America sees $2,811, Wells Fargo $2,500, and JPMorgan $2,400. The shares currently trade just above their 50-day moving average of €1,518.88. An interim dividend of €1.88 per share is payable on August 5, 2026.
Yet the broader semiconductor mood remains brittle. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell roughly 10 percent last week, entering bear-market territory even as ASML and TSMC both raised their forecasts. Fund managers now cite a potential AI bubble as one of the largest market risks. TSMC’s third-quarter gross margin guidance of 65 to 67 percent, weighed down by the ramp-up costs of 2-nanometer production, has done little to calm nerves.
The central question for the coming quarters is not whether demand will hold — it is whether Veldhoven can physically build enough machines, and whether policymakers in Washington and Beijing will allow the pace to continue. ASML has the orders, the technology, and the talent retention strategy. What remains uncertain is whether the world’s political machinery can keep up with its industrial one.
Ad
Asml Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Asml Analysis from July 22 delivers the answer:
The latest Asml figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Asml investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 22.
Asml: Buy or sell? Read more here...
