The battle over SpaceX’s valuation has rarely been this visceral. Analyst targets for the rocket-and-satellite company now span from $75 to $800—a spread that reflects not only clashing views on its future cash flows but also the chaotic cross-currents of a staged lockup expiration, a failed rocket test, and a short squeeze that has already handed bears billions in paper profits. At roughly $109 per share, the stock sits just above its 52-week low, caught between a bullish narrative of AI-driven satellite constellations and the cold mechanics of share supply.
The immediate trigger for the latest leg down was the aborted launch of Starship Flight 13 on July 16, when multiple Raptor-3 engines failed to ignite. SpaceX subsequently replaced two of the 33 engines and modified the propulsion system. The botched test reportedly erased some $100 billion in market capitalization. The company reset its launch target for July 23 with a 90-minute window starting at 17:45 local time, though Elon Musk briefly contradicted that date by suggesting July 24 before the official guidance was reasserted. On Polymarket, the probability of a July 23 launch jumped from 23% to 55% after the announcement. The mission will carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital trajectory to test the release mechanism and laser links—a precursor to orbital Starlink deliveries that SpaceX aims to begin by the end of 2026.
The stock closed at €109.72 on the most recent trading day, just 2.22% above its 52-week low of €107.34. The relative strength index of 35.8 points to oversold territory, while the 30-day annualized volatility of 91.56% underscores the scale of the recent swings. Over the past month the shares have dropped 30.88%, and the gap from the 52-week high of €194.46 stands at 43.58%. Evercore ISI nonetheless rates the stock “Outperform” with a $230 target, while Citi sees $200 in the next 12-18 months and a bull case of $900. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas laid out a base case of $300, built on revenue projections surging from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion in 2030 and $3.3 trillion in 2040, driven largely by the planned Starmind AI-satellite constellation. His bull case is $600, his bear case $75—a range that itself captures the debate.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
On the opposite end sits Gary Black of the Future Fund, who argues that a market capitalization near $1.7 trillion equates to roughly 40 times expected sales, a multiple he says no trillion-dollar company has ever commanded. He draws a comparison to Nvidia, which trades at a forward multiple of 10 to 25. Black says he will not re-enter the stock below $100 and is watching the first quarterly report as a public company, expected in early August, for the next catalyst. Meanwhile, Raymond-James analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a “Strong Buy” and a target of $800, implying a market cap above $10 trillion. The consensus analyst target stands at $236.
The short side has already profited handsomely. With roughly 30% of the 640 million freely tradable shares sold short, bears are sitting on paper gains of about $4 billion after the stock fell below the June IPO price of $135. Musk responded by calling their survival probability “very low,” a taunt that may fuel further volatility. At the same time, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has been adding aggressively, purchasing shares worth $19.4 million on July 17 and another $57 million on July 20, funded in part by selling $39 million in AMD stock.
The lockup calendar adds another layer of uncertainty. On August 11, 20% of locked shares become tradable, followed by 14% each on September 24 and October 25, and 28% on November 7. Separately, a different tranche releases 7% of shares at intervals of 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days after the IPO, meaning up to 911.5 million shares worth an estimated $115 billion could eventually hit the market. Musk’s own stake remains locked until June 2027. The combination of these supply waves, the upcoming quarterly results, and the second attempt at Starship Flight 13 leaves the stock balancing on a knife’s edge—one where a successful launch could suddenly tip the scales in favor of the bulls, while another failure might confirm the bears’ worst-case scenarios.
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